国投期货贵金属日报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals tumbled overall. After last week's interest - rate meetings of the Fed and the ECB sent hawkish signals, the market anticipates that the Fed may not cut rates this year. The threat of war and high oil prices have intensified inflation concerns. Before the war shows obvious signs of easing, precious metals may remain weak, with the gold price testing the support at $4000 per ounce [1]. - The market trading logic has shifted from "re - inflation" to "weak demand in recession", causing funds to shift from precious metals and non - ferrous metals to the energy and chemical sectors. Macro, capital, and fundamentals fail to provide effective bullish factors, leading to a gap - down decline in the precious metals market. Due to the strong cost support of platinum and palladium, the first support below the market can refer to the high - cost line of mines [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - Precious metals dropped significantly today. International gold and silver prices broke through key levels and declined [1]. - Gold and silver prices plunged from high levels, the financial premium of platinum and palladium shrank substantially, and the market pricing gradually moved closer to that of industrial metals [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - Central bank policies: The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged. The median forecast of the dot - plot shows that the committee still expects one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, but the number of officials supporting larger - scale rate cuts has decreased, indicating a more conservative policy path. Powell mentioned that the Fed won't consider rate cuts until seeing further progress on inflation, and the possibility of rate hikes has been discussed internally. After the meeting, the market expects the Fed may not cut rates this year [1]. - Geopolitical factors: The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard warned that if Trump's threat to attack Iranian power plants is carried out, Iran will take a series of measures, including completely closing the Strait of Hormuz. High oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, causing a fall in assets such as stocks and putting pressure on precious metals. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, and non - hostile ships can pass through after coordinating with Iranian authorities [1][3]. - Market logic shift: Market trading logic has changed from "re - inflation" to "weak demand in recession", and funds are flowing from precious metals and non - ferrous metals to the energy and chemical sectors [2]. - Fundamental factors: The consumer - side narrative of large - scale application of hydrogen energy needs time to materialize, and the substitution of electric vehicles for traditional fuel vehicles continues, resulting in insufficient support for platinum and palladium prices from the consumer side [2]. Support Levels - The gold price is testing the support at $4000 per ounce [1]. - For platinum and palladium, the first support below the market can refer to the high - cost line of mines. The current mining cost of platinum and palladium in South African deep - well mines is generally above $1150 per ounce (about 254 yuan per gram, converted at an exchange rate of 6.87) [2].