Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Aluminum: High inventory and weak reality suppress upward momentum. It is expected to face pressure in the short - term and operate at a high level. Pay attention to the evolution of macro - events and inventory turnovers [12] - Zinc: Medium - to long - term supply increase exerts pressure, but it takes time to materialize. The price will range - bound in the short - term. Pay attention to macro - risk events and inventory - consumption trends [14] - Tin: The price trend is weak and volatile [15] - Lithium carbonate: Affected by macro - disturbances and supply - demand games, the price is under pressure and will fluctuate weakly within a range [18] Summary by Directory 01. Colorful Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on March 20, 2026, was 94,740, a weekly decrease of 5,570 or 5.55% compared to March 13. The average price in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 95,695, a weekly decrease of 4,915 or 4.89% [9] - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on March 20, 2026, was 24,020, a weekly decrease of 940 or 3.77% compared to March 13. The average price of A00 aluminum in the non - ferrous market was 24,030, a weekly decrease of 1,070 or 4.26% [9] - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on March 20, 2026, was 22,935, a weekly decrease of 1,205 or 4.99% compared to March 13. The price of zinc ingots was 22,390, a weekly decrease of 1,690 or 7.02% [9] - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on March 20, 2026, was 342,480, a weekly decrease of 31,630 or 8.45% compared to March 13. The average price in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 354,000, a weekly decrease of 33,000 or 8.53% [9] - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on March 20, 2026, was 133,160, a weekly decrease of 3,770 or 2.75% compared to March 13. The average price of nickel (No. 1) was 137,630, a weekly decrease of 3,990 or 2.82% [9] 02. This Week's Colorful Market Forecast - Aluminum: Last week, the aluminum price corrected from a high. Macro - risk premiums were reduced due to eased sentiment and profit - taking by long positions. New electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are still ramping up production, but geopolitical conflicts have made the supply in the Middle East unstable. The downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased slightly, and the consumption peak season is showing signs. The inventory accumulation has slowed down, but the high - inventory situation continues to suppress the upward momentum [12] - Zinc: Last week, the zinc price was weak. The strengthening of the US dollar index suppressed the non - ferrous metals. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was basically stable, while the import processing fee continued to decline. The operating rate of the galvanizing industry increased, and enterprises actively stocked up on raw materials. In the medium - to long - term, supply increase exerts pressure on the price, but it takes time to materialize [14] - Tin: In February, the import volume of tin ore increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, the smelting end's operating rate increased, but the downstream demand recovery was less than expected. The supply shortage has eased, leading to a decline in the tin price [15] - Lithium carbonate: Last week, the futures main contract of lithium carbonate continued to be weak. The supply side is accelerating production, the demand side's growth has slowed down, the inventory depletion is almost over, and the cost support has weakened. Affected by macro - factors, the price is under pressure and will fluctuate weakly [18] 03. Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 585 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of low - grade bauxite remained unchanged at 515 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average price of imported bauxite was 66.28 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.28. The port arrival volume was 441.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 121.97, and the departure volume was 556.96 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.05 [23][27] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan was 2,770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 65; the full cost was 2,707 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 38.4; the profit in Shanxi was 16.94 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 70 [30] - Electrolytic aluminum: The total cost was 16,409.05 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 130.18; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50. The operating rates of aluminum cable, aluminum foil, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum profile, primary aluminum alloy, and recycled aluminum alloy showed different changes. The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 43,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700; the total bonded - area inventory was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,900; the social inventory was 1.337 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 128,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,100. The SHFE inventory was 452,044 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,619; the LME inventory was 429,675 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,625 [32][35][43] - Spot and basis: The basis of the current month was 110 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10; the basis of the main contract was 50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 110; the basis of the third - consecutive contract was - 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 [49] - Monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 125 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 [53] Zinc - Zinc concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 19,722 yuan/metal ton, a week - on - week decrease of 936; the domestic processing fee was 1,550 yuan/metal ton, unchanged week - on - week; the import processing fee was 5.23 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6.02. The enterprise production profit was 6,722 yuan/metal ton, a week - on - week decrease of 936; the import profit and loss was - 319.52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 441.81; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 150,000 physical tons, unchanged week - on - week [60][63] - Refined zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions was 255,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,600; the bonded - area inventory was 3,300 tons, unchanged week - on - week; the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 152,266 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,918; the LME zinc inventory was 117,675 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,775 [67] - Galvanizing: The output was 346,090 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,895; the operating rate was 59.7%, a week - on - week increase of 6.7; the raw material inventory was 15,370 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,020; the finished - product inventory was 375,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 [71] - Basis and monthly spread: The basis of the current month was - 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30; the basis of the main contract was - 25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 35; the basis of the third - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 95. The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 65; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 125 [75][76] Tin - Refined tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.002; the combined operating rate was 68.51%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42 [84] - Tin ingot inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 10,042 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,472; the social inventory in China's regions was 10,977 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,380 [87] - Tin concentrate processing fee: The processing fee in Yunnan (40%) was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the processing fees in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi (60%) were 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [90] - Tin ore import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level was 39,899.73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7,952.71 [91] - Spot average price: The average price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 337,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33,200; the average prices of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi were 341,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33,200 [98] Carbonate Lithium - Price and trading volume: The closing price of the main contract was 143,860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.41%; the trading volume was 258,276 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 10.50%; the open interest was 276,578 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 12.74%; the basis was 5,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25.72%. The weekly average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 153,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.94%; the weekly average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 154,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%; the weekly average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 151,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.17% [101] - Supply side: The total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 55.14%, a week - on - week increase of 3.24%; the output was 24,186 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.24%. The operating rates and outputs of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene, salt lakes, lepidolite, and recycled materials showed different changes [106][107][111] - Demand side: The weekly output of ternary materials was 17,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.11%; the inventory was 18,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.25%. The weekly output of lithium iron phosphate was 102,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.25%; the iron - lithium factory's weekly inventory was 106,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.89%. The weekly output of power cells was 29.33 GWh, a week - on - week increase of 6.65%; the weekly sales volume of domestic new - energy passenger cars in February was 765,000, a month - on - month decrease of 19.05%. The monthly operating rate of the SMM energy - storage battery industry in February was 79.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.84%; the output was 56.07 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 11.03% [114][117] - Inventory: The social inventory of lithium carbonate was 40,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.28%; the sample weekly inventory was 98,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09%. The inventory days were 27.7 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% [121] - Cost and profit: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,131.8 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%; the average price of spodumene (Chinese spot 5% - 5.5%) was 14,510 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.19%. The average prices of lepidolite and amblygonite with different grades also showed week - on - week decreases [124]
【华宝期货】有色金属周报-20260323
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2026-03-23 13:00