华宝期货钢铁产业链周报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall: The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the steel industry, including weekly market reviews, forecasts for the black market, and detailed data on various steel - related products [12][14][16]. - 成材: Driven by raw materials, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. The cost has some support, and in the long - term, downstream demand should be focused on [12][13]. - 铁矿石: The price is in a high - level oscillation. Although the short - term supply - demand relationship has marginally improved, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose. It is recommended to operate within a range and sell out - of - the - money call options [14]. - 煤焦: The fundamental situation is still supply - strong and demand - weak, but overseas geopolitical conflicts have affected the market sentiment, causing the price to fluctuate sharply. It is advisable to wait and see [15]. - 铁合金: The demand is rising slightly, and the price is running strongly. Manganese silicon is affected by high inventory, while ferrosilicon is in a tight balance [16]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 01 周度行情回顾 - Futures and Spot Prices: The report presents the closing prices and price changes of futures and spot prices of various steel - related products from March 13 to March 20, 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and scrap steel [8]. 02 本周黑色行情预判 成材 - Logic: The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased by 2.61 percentage points, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 1.29 percentage points. The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 6.13 percentage points. The cost fundamentals have little change, and the raw material price increase provides cost support. The steel price follows the raw material fluctuations in the short - term, and downstream demand should be focused on in the long - term [13]. - View: It is expected to fluctuate strongly [13]. - Later Concerns: Macro - policies and downstream demand [13]. 铁矿石 - Logic: The macro - drive is weak. The price is in a high - level oscillation due to concerns about limited domestic spot trade liquidity, a decrease in short - term domestic supply intensity, an increase in demand, and an increase in costs caused by the Middle East conflict. The long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose [14]. - View: The short - term supply - demand relationship has marginally improved, but the price is not determined by fundamentals. It is recommended to operate within a range and sell out - of - the money call options. The expected price range is 104 - 109 US dollars/ton (61% index), corresponding to 790 - 825 yuan/ton for the 05 contract of Dalian iron ore futures [14]. - Later Concerns: Middle East war conflicts, supply - side stability, and long - term agreement negotiation results [14]. 煤焦 - Logic: The coking coal futures price fluctuated weakly last week but rose sharply on Friday night. The driving force is mainly the energy concerns caused by the Middle East conflict, and the fundamental upward drive is limited. The supply is still in a high - production and high - import pattern, and the demand is in the process of recovery, showing a weak balance of supply - strong and demand - weak [15]. - View: The price fluctuates sharply in the short - term. It is advisable to control risks and wait and see [15]. - Later Concerns: Linkage with the energy - chemical sector, production rhythm of coking and steel enterprises, and changes in imported coal customs clearance [15]. 铁合金 - Logic: Overseas, the US core PCE data in January strengthened inflation concerns. Domestically, the economic data from January to February was positive. The alloy sector performed relatively strongly. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the supply of ferrosilicon increased. The demand for both increased. The inventory of silicon manganese increased, while that of ferrosilicon decreased. The cost of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon is strongly supported [16]. - View: The upward space of silicon manganese price is restricted by high inventory, but it will still fluctuate strongly. Ferrosilicon is in a tight balance and will fluctuate slightly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and steel mill profits [16]. - Later Concerns: Domestic macro - policies, downstream demand recovery, steel mill profits, and production conditions [16]. 03 品种数据 成材 - Rebar: - Production and Apparent Demand: The weekly production was 203.33 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.03 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.88 tons. The apparent demand was 208.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.28 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.90 tons [21]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 653.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.34 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.25 tons. The steel mill inventory was 236.20 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42 tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.16 tons. The total inventory was 889.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76 tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.41 tons [27]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was 47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 118 yuan; for May, it was 107 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 49 yuan; for October, it was 79 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 109 yuan [41]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: - Production and Apparent Demand: The weekly production was 300.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 24.12 tons. The apparent demand was 310.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.15 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.14 tons [33]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 376.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.98 tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.28 tons. The steel mill inventory was 84.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.32 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89 tons. The total inventory was 461.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.30 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51.39 tons [38]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was - 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 14 yuan; for May, it was - 17 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 29 yuan; for October, it was - 23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 12 yuan [49]. 铁矿石 - Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports): The total inventory was 17098.40 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89.12 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2635.91 tons. The Australian ore inventory was 8323.80 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.98 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2267.72 tons. The Brazilian ore inventory was 5073.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31.13 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 659.2 tons. The trade ore inventory was 11499.78 tons, a week - on - week increase of 89.57 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1631.50 tons. The daily port dredging volume was 320.97 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 3.07 tons and a year - on - year increase of 12.39 tons [52]. - 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption: The inventory was 9034.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 104.96 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 110.59 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 32.13, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70 and a year - on - year increase of 0.09. The daily consumption was 281.15 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 9.20 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.24 tons. The daily iron - water production was 228.15 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 6.95 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 9.13 tons [62]. - 247 Steel Mills'开工率/盈利率: The blast furnace opening rate was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate was 85.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.04 percentage points. The profitability rate was 42.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.83 percentage points [66]. - Global Shipment (19 Ports): The total global shipment was 3144.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.5 tons and a year - on - year increase of 59.6 tons. The shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 2458.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 73.6 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 56.9 tons. The non - mainstream shipment was 686.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.9 tons and a year - on - year increase of 116.5 tons [88]. 煤焦 - Coke Inventory: The total inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 981.53 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.85 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 24.37 tons. The independent coking enterprise inventory was 94.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.2 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 40.8 tons. The 247 steel mills' inventory was 688.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 tons and a year - on - year increase of 25.4 tons. The 4 - port inventory was 199.13 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.75 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 8.97 tons [113]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The total inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2630.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.6 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5.42 tons. The independent coking enterprise inventory was 1005.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35.6 tons and a year - on - year increase of 182.8 tons. The 247 steel mills' inventory was 773.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.7 tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.1 tons. The 5 - port inventory was 264.95 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 111.47 tons. The 314 coal - washing plants' inventory was 332.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.9 tons and a year - on - year increase of 25.75 tons. The 523 coking coal mines' inventory was 254.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.6 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 118.6 tons [120][121]. - Profitability and Production: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 38 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 65 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.8 percentage points. The daily coke production of independent coking enterprises was 64.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4 tons. The daily refined coal production of 523 coking coal mines was 79.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.1 tons. The daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was 228.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.98 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.41 tons [125][131][132]. 铁合金 - Spot Price: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36%, South Africa) at Tianjin Port on March 20 was 40.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 4.5 yuan. The spot price of silicon manganese (Inner Mongolia 6517) was 6050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon (Inner Mongolia 72) was 5600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan [154]. - Manganese Ore Inventory: The total port inventory in the week of March 13 was 470.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1 tons and a year - on - year increase of 69 tons. The inventory at Tianjin Port was 341.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 22.3 tons. The inventory at Qinzhou Port was 128.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46.7 tons [156]. - Production: The weekly production of silicon manganese (187 independent enterprises) was 196210 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1470 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6405 tons. The weekly production of ferrosilicon (136 independent enterprises) was 10.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.75 tons [159][162]. - Demand: The weekly demand for silicon manganese (five major steel types) was 119733 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3073 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5526 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon (five major steel types) was 19416.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 552 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 631 tons [165]. - Inventory: The inventory of silicon manganese (63 independent enterprises) on March 20 was 384800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 251700 tons. The inventory of ferrosilicon (60 independent enterprises) on March 20 was 59400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1770 tons and a year - on - year