钢铁行业周度更新报告：高炉复产，同比仍低-20260323

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, and supply-side adjustments are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, facilitating a quicker industry upturn [3][8]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand is showing signs of recovery, with a decrease in inventory levels. The total social inventory of major steel products was 14.11 million tons, down by 120,000 tons week-on-week. Steel mill inventory decreased to 5.35 million tons, down by 160,000 tons [10]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces has increased, with the national average for 247 steel mills rising to 79.78%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points week-on-week [21]. Price Trends - Last week, the price of rebar in Shanghai decreased by 50 CNY/ton to 3,210 CNY/ton, a drop of 1.6%. Hot-rolled coil prices fell by 10 CNY/ton to 3,300 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.39% [8][41]. Profitability - The profitability of steel mills has improved, with the average profit margin for rebar rising to 192 CNY/ton, an increase of 6 CNY/ton week-on-week. The average profit margin for hot-rolled coils also increased to 54 CNY/ton, up by 18 CNY/ton [36]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as those with low costs and flexible operations like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [3].