五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Although the Middle - East situation has eased, the possibility of continued conflict remains high, and the sentiment has not fully reversed. The supply of copper raw materials is continuously tight, domestic refined copper consumption sentiment has improved, and future copper inventories are expected to be further digested, providing stronger support for copper prices from the fundamental perspective. Short - term copper prices may continue to test the bottom [1][2]. - Aluminum: The Middle - East situation has eased, but the market risk sentiment has not reversed. The supply concern has been alleviated due to Bahrain's plan to export 40% - 60% of aluminum products through the Jeddah Port in Saudi Arabia. Overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight due to overseas smelter maintenance and production cuts. Domestic downstream demand improvement is expected to drive inventory reduction. If the war situation does not cool down significantly, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend while digesting inventories [3][4]. - Lead: The dominant inventory of lead concentrates has declined, and the import TC of lead concentrates has increased, with the TC of lead concentrates stabilizing. The operation of primary smelting enterprises has recovered. The dominant inventory of lead scrap has increased, and the operation of secondary smelting enterprises has recovered to a limited extent. The factory inventories of both primary and secondary smelting enterprises have declined, and social inventories have also decreased after the fall of lead prices. The current lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range, and downstream battery enterprises may carry out strategic buying for hedging. However, the high Shanghai - London ratio has led to a decrease in exports of battery enterprises and an inflow of overseas lead ingots. Coupled with the recession narrative caused by high oil prices, the non - ferrous metals sector is under pressure, and there may be off - industry funds shorting Shanghai lead. The long - short contradiction of lead prices has increased, and the volatility has continued to rise, with the possibility of further decline in lead prices [6][7]. - Zinc: The dominant inventory of zinc concentrates has increased, the import TC of zinc concentrates has continued to decline, and the domestic TC has stabilized. The sharp decline in zinc prices has led to a rapid decline in mining and smelting profits. Downstream galvanizing plants and die - casting zinc alloy plants have actively replenished inventory at low prices, but the overall domestic inventory remains at a high level, and the zinc industry continues to be in a weak state. High oil prices have led to a recession narrative, and the market is discussing the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates this year. The non - ferrous metals sector is under pressure, and zinc prices have entered a downward trend. The sustainability of downstream inventory replenishment, the Fed's monetary policy guidance, and the geopolitical conflict situation need to be further concerned [8][9]. - Tin: The supply side of tin has improved marginally compared with before the Spring Festival, but it still faces the constraint of raw material shortage. Under the pressure on both the mining and secondary ends, the release of smelting capacity is slow, and the short - term supply increase is expected to be limited. The demand side has improved marginally, and short - term consumption maintains a weak recovery pattern. Downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment at low prices provides short - term support for tin prices. However, considering the continuous geopolitical disturbances and the significant decline in the US interest - rate cut expectation, global risk assets are under pressure, and tin prices are expected to run weakly [10][11]. - Nickel: In the short term, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to an increase in the long - term inflation expectation in the US, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting has taken a hawkish stance. Risk assets are generally under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to follow the downward trend. In the medium term, the improvement trend of global nickel element supply and demand is certain, and nickel prices have strong bottom support with limited downward space. It is not recommended to short. It is suggested to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy and operate within the range [12][13]. - Lithium Carbonate: There are more concerns about the macro - economic outlook, and the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, putting pressure on metal prices. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the high - level domestic apparent consumption still has room for growth. Downstream inventory replenishment at low prices provides support. Recently, there have been occasional disturbances in the mining end. Under the tight - balance pattern of lithium carbonate, short - sellers should stop losses cautiously. The changes in the position on the futures market, industry - driving events, and spot premium and discount need to be focused on in the future [16][17]. - Alumina: The Guinea government is expected to introduce policies to tighten bauxite exports in early April to boost bauxite prices and increase taxes. It is expected that the bauxite price will be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. The short - term maintenance of alumina smelting has increased, leading to a tight supply, but the long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended. Although the expectation of the mining end has improved, the current futures price has a high premium, and the long - term oversupply pattern and the increase in registered warehouse receipts will continue to suppress the futures price [19][20]. - Stainless Steel: The overall supply of the stainless - steel market remains in a loose pattern, the speed of social inventory digestion is slow, and the market has sufficient circulating goods. The release of downstream terminal demand is weak, and the performance in the traditional peak season in March is lower than expected. The real - estate industry is in a downturn, which is the main factor dragging down the overall consumption. The home - appliance industry is weak, and the production schedule of washing machines and other products in March has declined year - on - year. Enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. Overall, the stainless - steel market is in a game pattern of weak macro - economic situation and demand, while the mining end and shipping costs provide strong support. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [22][23]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The cost of casting aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to continue to improve with the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises. Coupled with disturbances on the supply side and tight raw material supply, the short - term price still has certain support [25][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - Market Quotes: Trump's suspension of the strike on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure led to a rise in copper prices. The LME 3M copper contract closed up 3.27% at $12,221 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 94,840 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 5,125 tons to 347,475 tons, mainly from North American warehouses. The cancellation warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by more than 50,000 tons compared with last Thursday, bonded - area inventory decreased, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 14,000 to 274,000 tons. The spot discount in East China slightly expanded to 50 yuan per ton, and downstream procurement sentiment remained relatively active. The spot premium in Guangdong decreased to 50 yuan per ton, and sellers were more active in shipping. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 500 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference returned to near zero, and the scrap copper price was weaker [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Middle - East situation has eased, but the conflict may continue, and the sentiment has not fully reversed. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, domestic refined copper consumption sentiment has improved, and future copper inventories are expected to be further digested, providing stronger support for copper prices from the fundamental perspective. Short - term copper prices may continue to test the bottom. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to be 93,000 - 96,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M copper contract is 11,800 - 12,500 US dollars per ton [2]. Aluminum - Market Quotes: Trump's suspension of the strike on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure led to an improvement in market risk appetite. The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 1.05% at $3,225 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,750 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 15,000 tons to 571,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 403,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots slightly decreased compared with last Thursday, and the social inventory of aluminum rods decreased by about 20,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to increase, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased at low prices. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in East China narrowed to 150 yuan per ton, and the market receiving sentiment was okay. LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 428,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a premium [3]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Middle - East situation has eased, but the market risk sentiment has not reversed. The supply concern has been alleviated due to Bahrain's plan to export 40% - 60% of aluminum products through the Jeddah Port in Saudi Arabia. Overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight due to overseas smelter maintenance and production cuts. Domestic downstream demand improvement is expected to drive inventory reduction. If the war situation does not cool down significantly, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend while digesting inventories. After the effective inventory reduction, the fundamentals will provide stronger support for aluminum prices. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to be 23,200 - 24,200 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum contract is 3,160 - 3,260 US dollars per ton [4]. Lead - Market Quotes: On Monday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.65% at 16,399 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 133,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S lead increased by $3.5 to $1,884.5 per ton, with a total position of 186,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,275 yuan per ton, and the average price of secondary refined lead was also 16,275 yuan per ton, with a refined - scrap price difference at par. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,800 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 58,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 25 yuan per ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 284,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancellation warrant was 7,900 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 39.51 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 141.4 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London ratio of the lead ingot was 1.263, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 674.41 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 23 was 63,100 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons compared with March 19 [6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The dominant inventory of lead concentrates has declined, and the import TC of lead concentrates has increased, with the TC of lead concentrates stabilizing. The operation of primary smelting enterprises has recovered. The dominant inventory of lead scrap has increased, and the operation of secondary smelting enterprises has recovered to a limited extent. The factory inventories of both primary and secondary smelting enterprises have declined, and social inventories have also decreased after the fall of lead prices. The current lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range, and downstream battery enterprises may carry out strategic buying for hedging. However, the high Shanghai - London ratio has led to a decrease in exports of battery enterprises and an inflow of overseas lead ingots. Coupled with the recession narrative caused by high oil prices, the non - ferrous metals sector is under pressure, and there may be off - industry funds shorting Shanghai lead. The long - short contradiction of lead prices has increased, and the volatility has continued to rise, with the possibility of further decline in lead prices [7]. Zinc - Market Quotes: On Monday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.60% at 22,801 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 191,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S zinc decreased by $42.5 to $3,044 per ton, with a total position of 206,100 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22,670 yuan per ton, the Shanghai basis was - 65 yuan per ton, the Tianjin basis was - 75 yuan per ton, the Guangdong basis was - 30 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was - 35 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 100,600 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 65 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 30 yuan per ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 117,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancellation warrant was 6,100 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 24.61 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 34.17 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London ratio of the zinc ingot was 1.087, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,342.35 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on March 23 was 219,500 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons compared with March 19. After the continuous decline of Shanghai zinc, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory at low prices [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The dominant inventory of zinc concentrates has increased, the import TC of zinc concentrates has continued to decline, and the domestic TC has stabilized. The sharp decline in zinc prices has led to a rapid decline in mining and smelting profits. Downstream galvanizing plants and die - casting zinc alloy plants have actively replenished inventory at low prices, but the overall domestic inventory remains at a high level, and the zinc industry continues to be in a weak state. High oil prices have led to a recession narrative, and the market is discussing the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates this year. The non - ferrous metals sector is under pressure, and zinc prices have entered a downward trend. The sustainability of downstream inventory replenishment, the Fed's monetary policy guidance, and the geopolitical conflict situation need to be further concerned [9]. Tin - Market Quotes: On March 23, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 348,300 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4.14% compared with the previous day. The SHFE inventory was 8,978 tons, a decrease of 508 tons compared with the previous day. The LME inventory was 8,805 tons, a decrease of 115 tons compared with the previous day. On the supply side, with the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded from the holiday low, and the industry's production activities have entered a mild recovery stage. The resumption of production in Yunnan is relatively faster, and the improvement in operation is more obvious; although there is also a recovery in Jiangxi, the recovery amplitude is relatively limited, and the overall recovery slope is gentle. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, downstream consumption significantly shrank. In March, the improvement in terminal actual purchases is still limited, and there has been no substantial recovery. After the sharp decline of tin prices last week, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, driving a significant decrease in inventory. As of March 20, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,035 tons, a decrease of 2,770 tons compared with the previous week [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply side of tin has improved marginally compared with before the Spring Festival, but it still faces the constraint of raw material shortage. Under the pressure on both the mining and secondary ends, the release of smelting capacity is slow, and the short - term supply increase is expected to be limited. The demand side has improved marginally, and short - term consumption maintains a weak recovery pattern. Downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment at low prices provides short - term support for tin prices. However, considering the continuous geopolitical disturbances and the significant decline in the US interest - rate cut expectation, global risk assets are under pressure, and tin prices are expected to run weakly. The operating range of the domestic main contract is expected to be 300,000 - 360,000 yuan per ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 45,000 US dollars per ton [11]. Nickel - Market Quotes: On March 23, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 132,980 yuan per ton,