能源化工日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2] - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions, take profits on rallies [4] - For urea, short on rallies considering the high - expected first - quarter production and the low cost - performance of export quotas. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7] - For rubber, trade flexibly on the short - term, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position. The RU below 16700 has turned bearish technically, and out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber can still be allocated [12] - For PVC, it is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the high non - integrated profit of styrene and large geopolitical influence on the market, it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [19] - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread on rallies after the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally [22] - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, while long - term contradictions shift from the cost side to production capacity mismatch [24] - For PX, the load is expected to decline further, inventory is expected to decrease significantly, and the subsequent valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [27] - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [30][31] - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease sharply, inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, and there is an expectation of large - scale import shrinkage, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [33] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: The INE main crude oil futures closed up 58.20 yuan/barrel, a 7.50% increase, at 834.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 286.00 yuan/ton, a 5.99% increase, at 5060.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 203.00 yuan/ton, a 3.51% increase, at 5980.00 yuan/ton [1] - Strategy Viewpoint: Start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2] Methanol - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, and Hebei changed by 205 yuan/ton, 175 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract changed by 271.00 yuan/ton, closing at 3351 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 117 yuan [4] - Strategy Viewpoint: Since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions, take profits on rallies [4] Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Shanxi changed by - 10 yuan/ton, - 20 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton respectively. The overall basis was reported at - 24 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 43 yuan/ton, closing at 1884 yuan/ton [6] - Strategy Viewpoint: Short on rallies considering the high - expected first - quarter production and the low cost - performance of export quotas. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7] Rubber - Market Information: Due to concerns about the economic outlook caused by the Middle East situation, the stock market and sensitive commodities fell. RU and NR fell due to demand prospects, while butadiene rubber rose due to cost increases and reduced refinery operating rates. As of March 19, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still suspended. As of March 15, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 136.49 million tons, a 1.56 - million - ton decrease and a 1.13% decline from the previous period. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber decreased by 1.34%, and that of light - colored rubber decreased by 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 million tons to 69.21 million tons [9][10] - Strategy Viewpoint: Trade flexibly on the short - term, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position. The RU below 16700 has turned bearish technically, and out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber can still be allocated [12] PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 376 yuan, closing at 6251 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 6020 (+350) yuan/ton, the basis was - 231 (- 16) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 36 (- 15) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2650 (0) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke medium was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1425 (+75) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 708 (+19) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.1%, a 1.2% decline from the previous period; the calcium - carbide method was 84.7%, a 1.8% increase; the ethylene method was 69.2%, an 8.4% decline. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.7%, a 2.3% increase. Factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (- 1.2), and social inventory was 137.1 million tons (- 3.6) [14] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [16] Pure Benzene & Styrene - Market Information: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 8635 yuan/ton, a 450 - yuan/ton increase; the closing price of the active contract was 9205 yuan/ton, a 450 - yuan/ton increase; the basis was - 570 yuan/ton, a 422 - yuan/ton decrease. The spot price of styrene was 10300 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active contract was 11070 yuan/ton, a 966 - yuan/ton increase; the basis was - 770 yuan/ton, a 1016 - yuan/ton weakening. The BZN spread was - 81.5 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan/ton decrease. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 594.35 yuan/ton, a 574.5 - yuan/ton increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton decrease. The upstream operating rate was 70.46%, a 1.33% decline. The inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.60 million tons to 16.25 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.93%, a 0.60% increase; the PS operating rate was 51.60%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 61.00%, a 3.22% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 67.10%, a 0.30% decline [18] - Strategy Viewpoint: Due to the high non - integrated profit of styrene and large geopolitical influence on the market, it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [19] Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 9523 yuan/ton, a 705 - yuan/ton increase; the spot price was 8875 yuan/ton, a 450 - yuan/ton increase; the basis was - 648 yuan/ton, a 255 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 80.37%, a 0.39% increase. The weekly inventory of production enterprises decreased by 0.71 million tons to 56.83 million tons, and the inventory of traders increased by 0.48 million tons to 5.48 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 35%, a 1.17% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 211 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan/ton decrease [21] - Strategy Viewpoint: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread on rallies after the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally [22] Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 9793 yuan/ton, a 774 - yuan/ton increase; the spot price was 9275 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan/ton increase; the basis was - 518 yuan/ton, a 374 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 71.5%, a 0.17% increase. The weekly inventory of production enterprises decreased by 6.14 million tons to 59.62 million tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 1.244 million tons to 19.36 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons to 7.19 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 46%, a 0.29% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 270 yuan/ton, a 69 - yuan/ton decrease. The PP5 - 9 spread was 499 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan/ton increase [23] - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, while long - term contradictions shift from the cost side to production capacity mismatch [24] PX - Market Information: The PX05 contract rose 708 yuan, closing at 10390 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 114 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX operating load was 84.6%, a 0.1% decline; the Asian operating load was 74.8%, a 2.1% decline. The restart of the Daxie plant was postponed, the Zhejiang Petrochemical plant was shut down, and the Kuwaiti plant overseas was shut down. The PTA operating load was 80.8%, a 3.5% increase. In the first and middle of March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 31.1 million tons, a 2.8 - million - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 81 US dollars (- 130), the South Korean PX - MX was 87 US dollars (- 10), and the naphtha cracking spread was 375 US dollars (- 30) [26] - Strategy Viewpoint: The load is expected to decline further, inventory is expected to decrease significantly, and the subsequent valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [27] PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract rose 484 yuan, closing at 7134 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 188 yuan (- 10). The PTA operating load was 80.8%, a 3.5% increase. The downstream operating load was 87.6%, a 0.9% increase. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 million tons, a 2.6 - million - ton increase from the previous period. The on - disk processing fee increased by 19 yuan to 318 yuan [29] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [30][31] Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract rose 221 yuan, closing at 5574 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 150 yuan (- 44). The ethylene glycol operating load was 66.5%, a 0.3% decline; the synthetic - gas - based operating load was 72.3%, a 2.4% decline, and the ethylene - based operating load was 63.2%, a 0.8% increase. The downstream operating load was 87.6%, a 0.9% increase. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 15 million tons, and the East China departure was 1.39 million tons on March 22. The port inventory was 103.9 million tons, a 2.8 - million - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 3118 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 2671 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 1310 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 1425 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder rebounded to 640 yuan [32] - Strategy Viewpoint: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease sharply, inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, and there is an expectation of large - scale import shrinkage, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [33]