航运策略周报：午后暴涨后主力合约回吐涨幅，盘后SCFIS涨8.8%逼近1700点-20260324

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is in the process of switching from the off - season to the peak season. In March, the price increase was realized in advance, and April will still focus on stable loading. The probability of the emergency fuel surcharge of leading shipping companies being implemented in China this week is low, and shipping companies may still issue price increase letters or peak - season surcharges in April to support prices. The far - month contracts maintain a high premium, mainly due to the short - term emotional impact brought by the Houthi issue. The market is waiting for the realization of optimistic expectations, such as the impact of Middle - East transshipment, supply - chain disruptions, and fuel prices on supply and demand. In the short term, with a high premium, the market may show wide - range fluctuations, and there is a risk of increased volatility. It is recommended to participate with caution. The outlook is for a volatile market, with changes in the Strait of Hormuz and escort arrangements being the main risks [1][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Freight Rates and Contract Volume - Price - Last weekend, the freight rates on the European route showed a slight increase. Trump gave Iran a 48 - hour ultimatum. In the morning, some freight rates on the Evergreen line dropped to $2435/FEU. In the afternoon, the 04 contract quickly rose to 2190 points, and contracts such as 05 hit the daily limit during the session, then the overall market continued to decline. At the close, the 04 contract closed at 1957.4 points, up 3%, with a decrease of 74 in open interest; the closing price growth rates of contracts 05, 06, and 07 exceeded 10%, and the closing price increases of contracts 09 and later exceeded 6%. After the market, SCFIS increased by 8.8% to 1693.26 points, corresponding to the shipping prices from March 16 - 22 [2]. - According to Geek Rate data at 17:00, in the spot market, for GEMINI, MSK's online freight rate in the first week of April is $2630/FEU; HPL - SPOT's price at the end of March remained at $2535/FEU, with a low - price of $2035 taken off the line, and the single - voyage quote at the beginning of April remained at $2735/FEU, and other voyages were in the range of $3035 - 3535/FEU. For OCEAN, EMC's CES quote at the beginning of April is $2650/FEU, about $480 lower than at the end of March ($3130 - 3230/FEU), and the same as last weekend; other April voyage quotes are $3360/FEU. OOCL maintained $2737 - 2846/FEU at the end of March and opened at $3187 - 3284/FEU in April. For PA&MSC, ONE's quote remained at $2755/FEU at the end of March and $3761/FEU in April; MSC's online showed one CONDOR quote at the beginning of April of $2852/FEU, basically the same as at the end of March ($2840/FEU) [2]. Futures Contract Data | Contract | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Long - Position | Short - Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2604 | 1957.4 | 2007.2 | 5.6199 | 36453 | 17696 | 10817 | 11998 | | EC2605 | 2378.8 | 2354.1 | 10.8481 | 2459 | 1814 | | | | EC2606 | 2692.9 | 2597.8 | 10.3568 | 17737 | 14312 | | | | EC2607 | 2783 | 2755.6 | 11.1422 | 618 | 992 | | | | EC2608 | 2564 | 2557.7 | 9.4718 | 1998 | 2945 | | | | EC2609 | 1835.4 | 1824.7 | 6.3137 | 142 | 502 | | | | EC2610 | 1815 | 1651.5 | 6.9417 | 4102 | 7517 | | | | EC2612 | 1815 | 1812.1 | 6.4376 | 125 | 438 | | | [9] Spot Freight Rate Data | | SCFI | SCFIS | | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index (points) | 1707 | | | Northern Europe Route ($/TEU) | 1636 | 1693.26 (+8.8%) | | Mediterranean Route ($/TEU) | 2784 | | | West Coast of the United States Route ($/FEU) | 2054 | 1024.11 (-7.7%) | | East Coast of the United States Route ($/FEU) | 2922 | | [10] Geopolitical and Strait Passage Information - Geopolitically, the US - led naval alliance warned that the new threat from the Houthi to shipping in the Strait of Mandeb may pose an "increased risk" to maritime traffic. On March 22, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces stated that they would join the Middle - East war on Iran's side. The Houthi also claimed to have a hypersonic ballistic missile called "Palestine - 2". Houthi leader Abdul Malik al - Houthi said his forces were ready to act. Iran has provided the Houthi armed forces with anti - ship ballistic missiles, including the Asif missile with a range of 400 kilometers, the "Tufan" ground - to - ground ballistic missile with a range of up to 1800 kilometers, the Kuz series of cruise missiles with a range of more than 1300 kilometers, and the Samad series of attack drones with a range of up to 2500 kilometers [3]. - In terms of strait passage, on March 20, the freight rate from the Middle - East to China was $12.01/barrel, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%, and the freight rate from West Africa to China rebounded by 4.1% to $7.56/barrel. According to ShipVoy, the daily passage volume of the Strait of Hormuz was updated to 2 outbound voyages today [6].