能源替代逻辑发酵，成本端表现偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy substitution logic of coal has become the focus of recent market trading. Under the high crude oil prices due to continuous geopolitical conflicts, coking coal and coke prices are strong. The continuous US - Iran conflict and tight spot liquidity of some varieties support the spot and futures prices of iron ore. The impact of the Australian hurricane is limited, but the rising energy valuation continues to support alloy prices. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, and the peak - season expectations are still cautious, so the upward driving force for steel prices is limited. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron - ore supply - side disturbances [1] - Overall, the peak - season expectations are cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - world situation remains to be verified. There are still uncertainties in domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If the geopolitical conflicts continue, prices will be strongly supported; if they ease, prices may face downward pressure [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron Ore: The continuous US - Iran conflict and tight spot liquidity of some varieties support the spot and futures prices of iron ore. The supply - demand remains loose, and it is difficult to see overall inventory reduction, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to oscillate. Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals recovered. Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuates. Steel mill profitability increased month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to recover further. Port inventories decreased slightly, and steel - mill imported - ore inventories increased [9][10] - Scrap Steel: In the short term, scrap - steel arrivals are generally stable, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow. The fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap - steel supply is generally stable, short - process steel - mill demand has recovered rapidly, but long - process steel - mill demand has recovered slowly. Steel - mill inventories are still at a low level [11] Carbon Element - Coke: In the short term, both coke supply and demand are increasing, and the iron - water复产 speed may be faster. The spot cost is rising, and the expectation of a spot price increase is strong. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. After the lifting of production restrictions, both supply and demand of coke have recovered. With the rising energy valuation due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost is rising, and the willingness to raise spot prices has emerged again [12] - Coking Coal: Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will remain the focus of coking - coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall, but if the geopolitical conflicts ease and trading returns to fundamentals, there will be downward pressure on the futures prices. Domestic coal - mine supply has room for a slight increase, and Mongolian coal imports remain high. After the lifting of production restrictions, coke production has increased, and upstream coal - mine inventories have decreased slightly [13] Alloys - Manganese Silicon: Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of rising manganese - ore import costs and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products are difficult to disprove. However, in the medium - to - long - term, there is still a risk of a correction in the valuation level of the futures market above the cost due to the loose supply - demand, high inventories, and difficult cost transfer. The impact of the Australian hurricane is limited. The cost of manganese ore is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to pick up with the start of the peak season. However, the supply may increase, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse [17] - Silicon Iron: The expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products in the current geopolitical environment is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in silicon iron is still serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand relationship. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still a risk of a correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the cost [19] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Supply is still expected to be disturbed, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventories will always suppress prices. The spot price is low, and glass manufacturers are suffering large - scale losses. Downstream demand has not recovered, and middle and downstream restocking has led to a reduction in upstream inventories. Energy - price increases have pushed up the expected cost of far - month contracts [14] - Soda Ash: The supply is currently stable at a high level, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, the price center will decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted. The daily production decreased month - on - month. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has not changed much. The industry is still at the bottom of the cycle [16] Steel - Spot trading is performing well. After the weakening of environmental - protection production restrictions, iron - water production has rebounded rapidly, and electric - furnace production has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. The overall supply of the five major steel products has rebounded from a low level, mainly led by building materials. Infrastructure investment growth at the beginning of the year is good, downstream resumption of work is progressing well, and rigid and restocking demands are slowly being released. Steel inventories have started to decline, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high, and there are limited bright spots in the fundamentals [9] Commodity Index - On March 23, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2531.78, up 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2810.80, down 0.34%; the industrial products index was 2583.01, up 1.73%. The steel - industry chain index on March 23, 2026, had a daily increase of 2.25%, a 5 - day increase of 2.11%, a 1 - month increase of 7.03%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.86% [104][106]