伊朗局势持续演绎，?类资产剧烈波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The situation of the Iran geopolitical conflict remains unclear, and it is recommended to remain cautious about risk assets in the short - term. The remarks of Trump may help reduce the probability of the tail - risk of further deterioration of the situation, but cannot substantially relieve the Strait blockade. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and it has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. [1] - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short - term. The stock index, non - ferrous and precious metal sectors need to be vigilant against the drag caused by the further deterioration of market risk preference. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation is further strengthened, and the global stock market continues to be weak, which may suppress risk assets. [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overseas Macro - The impact of the Iran geopolitical situation on the financial market continues, and major asset prices fluctuate significantly. Trump's 48 - hour ultimatum is still in effect, but he said that the negotiation with Iran is "progressing very smoothly", which may help reduce the probability of the tail - risk of further deterioration of the situation. Crude oil prices significantly corrected on the evening of March 23, and major asset prices rebounded. [1] 3.2 Domestic Macro - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target of the added value of the core digital economy industry, adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. It also focuses on rectifying involution - style competition, advancing carbon peak work, and improving the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and the high seasonality of domestic port container throughput and the CRB index confirms the resilience of external demand. [1] 3.3 Asset Views - Be cautious about risk assets in the short - term. The stock index, non - ferrous and precious metal sectors may be dragged down by the deterioration of market risk preference. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation is strengthened, and the global stock market is weak, which may suppress risk assets. [1] 3.4 Market Performance 3.4.1 Financial Market - On March 23, 2026, stock index futures generally declined, with the CSI 300 futures down 3.94%, the SSE 50 futures down 3.83%, the CSI 500 futures down 5.16%, and the CSI 1000 futures down 5.87%. Treasury bond futures mostly declined, with the 2 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.03%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.06%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.09%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.03%. The US dollar index rose 0.33%. [7] 3.4.2 Industry Index - On March 23, 2026, most industries in the CITIC industry index declined. Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, and non - ferrous metals had relatively large declines, while the coal industry rose 0.35%. [8][9] 3.4.3 Overseas Commodities - As of March 20, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 2.66%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.61%, COMEX gold fell 2.47%, and COMEX silver fell 4.78%. [10][11] 3.4.4 Domestic Commodities - On March 23, 2026, shipping's container shipping to Europe line rose 7.61%, precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium generally declined, non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc had different trends, and black building materials such as steel, iron ore, and coke generally rose. Energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and methanol also had significant increases. [12][13] 3.5 Short - term Judgment of Each Sector - Financial: Stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate. [4] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver may have a corrective rebound after a short - term over - decline and are expected to fluctuate. [4] - Shipping: The container shipping to Europe line is expected to fluctuate weakly. [4] - Black Building Materials: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to fluctuate. [4] - Non - ferrous and New Materials: Most basic metals are expected to stop falling and fluctuate, and some varieties such as nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate strongly. [4] - Energy and Chemicals: Most varieties are expected to continue to fluctuate due to the unclear Middle - East geopolitical situation. [5] - Agriculture: Most varieties are affected by geopolitical conflicts and have large fluctuations, with different trends for different varieties. [5]