地缘冲突延续，多品种波动较大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amidst the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, multiple agricultural and related commodity varieties are experiencing significant fluctuations. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1]. - Different commodities show different trends: some are trending strongly, some are oscillating, and some are weakening. For example, synthetic rubber is trending strongly, while pork prices are hitting new lows [1][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Oils and fats are trending strongly due to rising crude oil prices. The overall inventory of edible oils in China has decreased, with different trends in the inventory of each type of oil. In the future, attention should be paid to the risks of crude oil decline and the expected difference in biodiesel policies [5]. - Logic: Geopolitical issues in the Middle East have led to a rise in crude oil prices, which in turn boosts the trend of oils and fats. Although the inventory of domestic oils has decreased, the demand is relatively weak, and each type of oil has its own supply - demand characteristics [5]. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at low levels [5]. Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The long - short forces are stalemated, and the two types of protein meal are oscillating [5]. - Logic: Internationally, factors such as the expected postponement of the US President's visit to China and the high - level oscillation of crude oil prices affect the price of US soybeans. Domestically, the expected relaxation of regulations on Brazilian soybeans and the traditional shutdown season have an impact on the supply and demand of protein meal [6]. - Outlook: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. Rapeseed meal may be weaker than soybean meal [6]. Corn - Viewpoint: With low inventory and continued replenishment, corn futures are strengthening again [6]. - Logic: The supply of corn shows a differentiated trend, with an increase in the supply of wet corn in North China and a rise in port prices. The demand from the feed and deep - processing sectors is improving, and the inventory of grain - using enterprises has stopped decreasing and started to increase. The impact of substitute products such as wheat still needs to be observed [9]. - Outlook: Corn is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term, but attention should be paid to the possible callback pressure caused by factors such as the increase in wet corn supply and the release of substitute products [9]. Pigs - Viewpoint: With a loose supply - demand relationship, pig prices have hit new lows [10]. - Logic: In the short - term, the supply of pigs has increased, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the pressure of pig slaughter remains high. In the long - term, the reduction of sow inventory is not smooth, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and recover in the third quarter [10]. - Outlook: Pig prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to hedging opportunities by short - selling at high levels. In the fourth quarter, the price may rise moderately [10]. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: Macro - sentiment has a dominant influence, and attention should be paid to the support at low levels [11]. - Logic: After a sharp decline, the rubber price has stabilized. With the start of the harvest season in Yunnan and the impact on tire orders to the Middle East, the price is under downward pressure. The support from synthetic rubber needs to be continuously observed [13]. - Outlook: The rubber price is expected to oscillate due to limited fundamental variables [13]. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The synthetic rubber market has hit the daily limit twice this month [14]. - Logic: The continuous escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a rise in crude oil prices, and the trading logic has shifted to the shortage of butadiene. The supply of butadiene has decreased, and there may be a shortage of spot goods in the future. As long as the geopolitical situation remains tense, the price is likely to rise [15]. - Outlook: The market will mainly follow the sector sentiment. If crude oil prices continue to rise, the market will remain strong in the short - term [15]. Cotton - Viewpoint: There is support at the bottom and pressure at the top [15]. - Logic: Fundamentally, the cotton processing and inspection are basically completed, and the inventory is starting to decrease. The export data of textile and clothing is good, and the demand in March is strong. However, the announcement of the sliding - scale tariff quota and the negative macro - expectations have led to an oscillating correction of the domestic market [15]. - Outlook: Cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in the long - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels during the correction [15]. Sugar - Viewpoint: In the short - term, domestic and international sugar prices oscillate following the oil price. In the long - term, there is a hidden upward - driving force in the surplus pattern [16]. - Logic: In the short - term, the sugar price is affected by the oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle East conflict. Although the global sugar market is in a surplus situation, high oil prices may affect the production in Brazil's new harvest season and tighten the global sugar supply [16]. - Outlook: The sugar price is expected to oscillate, and the short - term price reference range is 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [16]. Pulp - Viewpoint: The pulp market maintains an independent trend and continues to oscillate within a range [18]. - Logic: The futures price of pulp fluctuates due to the game between long and short forces. The consumption of broad - leaf pulp is strong, while that of coniferous pulp is weak. The demand in the future will decline seasonally, and the overseas coniferous pulp inventory is high. However, the cost provides support at low levels [18]. - Outlook: The pulp price is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 4950 - 5050 yuan/ton and pressure at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton [18]. Double - Offset Paper - Viewpoint: The double - offset paper market is strengthening with the rebound of commodities [19]. - Logic: The supply of double - offset paper has increased, and the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises has increased. The demand from downstream printers is mainly for rigid needs, and the market is moving slowly. However, in the short - and medium - term, the traditional demand season and the paper enterprises' desire to repair profits may lead to a short - term price increase [20]. - Outlook: The double - offset paper market is expected to oscillate. In the short - term, it may first rise and then fall, and in the long - term, it will oscillate within the range of 3800 - 4300 yuan/ton [20]. Logs - Viewpoint: The price of logs is strengthening due to increased costs [22]. - Logic: Geopolitical conflicts have led to an increase in international oil prices, which has raised the shipping cost from New Zealand to China. New Zealand suppliers have reduced production and raised prices, resulting in a supply - demand mismatch. However, the actual demand recovery is slow, and there may be short - term high - level oscillation risks [22]. - Outlook: Logs are expected to oscillate strongly, with strong support at the bottom and obvious hedging pressure at the top [22]. Commodity Index - On March 23, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2531.78, up 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2810.80, down 0.34%; the industrial product index was 2583.01, up 1.73%. The agricultural product index on March 23, 2026, was 965.09, with a daily decline of 0.10%, a decline of 0.91% in the past 5 days, an increase of 3.20% in the past month, and an increase of 3.43% since the beginning of the year [182][184].