悲观情绪缓解，基本金属有望震荡止跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Pessimistic sentiment has eased, and base metals are expected to stop falling and fluctuate. The improvement in supply and demand is expected to support prices. The information released by Trump about the easing of the military conflict between the US and Iran has triggered short - covering, which helps to improve short - term panic. In the medium term, supply - side disturbance risks still support prices, and actual demand and supply - demand are expected to continue to improve. Base metals are expected to show a fluctuating trend [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - View: Macro uncertainties increase, and copper prices fluctuate widely. The copper price is affected by high inventory in the short term, and the recent rebound of the US dollar index may lead to a fluctuating performance. In the medium term, it is expected to be in a fluctuating state [6]. - Information Analysis: On March 23, the spot premium of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was - 55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 67.2 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7 US dollars/dry ton [6]. - Main Logic: With the fermentation of the Middle East conflict, energy prices fluctuate sharply, increasing market concerns about macro uncertainties. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level and still falling, and the supply of scrap copper is also tight. The supply - side contraction expectation of refined copper is further strengthened. On the demand side, as the peak demand season approaches, the inventory of refined copper has started to decline, and the supply - demand of copper has improved marginally [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - View: Supported by the ore policy expectation in Guinea, the alumina price remains strong. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. - Information Analysis: On March 23, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2772.4 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipt was 406,877 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,274 tons [7]. - Main Logic: Recently, macro sentiment has magnified the fluctuations in the market. The Middle East geopolitical issue remains unresolved, and risk assets are generally under pressure. Fundamentally, the operating capacity of alumina fluctuates little, the balance between upstream and downstream has improved significantly but is still slightly in surplus, the warehouse receipt level is constantly increasing, and the spot quotation has risen slightly. The Middle East issue has continuously disturbed the electrolytic aluminum production, putting pressure on the demand for alumina, but the increase in freight and auxiliary material prices also brings the expectation of cost support. Recently, there have been new disturbances at the ore end, intensifying market concerns about resource stability, and the market price has run strongly in the short term [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - View: Macro sentiment fluctuates, and aluminum prices fluctuate. In the short term, it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. In the medium term, the supply - demand is expected to tighten, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to continue to rise [8][9]. - Information Analysis: On March 23, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,502 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 612 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 145 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton; the inventory of aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 1356,000 tons, with no month - on - month change; the inventory of aluminum rods in the main domestic consumption areas was 353,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons; the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 403,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 198 tons [8]. - Main Logic: Macroeconomically, the US economic data continues to show structural differentiation, and there is strong uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical conflict. On the supply side, the domestic built - in production capacity remains stable, and the smelting profit remains high; the Middle East geopolitical conflict increases the disturbance of overseas aluminum supply, and Indonesia is restricted by electricity and other factors, so there are still constraints on the medium - term supply increase. On the demand side, the weekly initial - stage operating rate has slightly recovered, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand still exists, and the spot remains at a discount. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum remains low. The subsequent demand performance and inventory changes need to be concerned [8][9]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - View: The market follows the aluminum ingot, and the price fluctuates. In the short and medium term, it is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [10]. - Information Analysis: On March 23, the price of ADC12 was 23,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,502 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 612 yuan/ton [10]. - Main Logic: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the aluminum ingot, the quotation remains high, and the tight supply situation is difficult to change in the short term, with strong cost support. On the supply side, the operating rate continues to be low, and the tax refund policy and tax transfer may still restrict the supply in the medium term. On the demand side, the policy of replacing old cars with new ones continues to be implemented, but the subsidy intensity has declined. In the short term, high prices suppress downstream demand, and it is still mainly based on rigid - demand replenishment at low prices. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased [10]. 3.1.5 Zinc - View: The support of low TC is emerging, and zinc prices fluctuate. In the short term, it may stabilize in a fluctuating manner. Overall, it shows a fluctuating trend [11][12]. - Information Analysis: On March 23, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 5 yuan/ton, that of Guangdong 0 zinc to the main contract was - 20 yuan/ton, and that of Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract was - 30 yuan/ton; as of March 23, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 219,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons [11]. - Main Logic: Macroeconomically, against the background of the continuous military conflict between the US and Iran and the sharp rise in oil prices, in the short term, investors' concerns about economic slowdown have increased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has faded again, with a pessimistic macro sentiment. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the refinery profit has not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The export of previously locked - price zinc ingots has ended one after another, and the supply pressure of domestic zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new orders at the terminal are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. Overall, the short - term supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is still an expectation of inventory reduction during the consumption peak season, and zinc prices may stabilize in a fluctuating manner in the short term [11][12]. 3.1.6 Lead - View: The cost support is stable, and lead prices fluctuate [13][14]. - Information Analysis: On March 23, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,850 yuan/ton (a decrease of 25 yuan/ton), the price difference between primary and recycled lead was 0 yuan/ton (no change); the price of 1 lead ingot was 16,200 - 16,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,250 yuan/ton, no month - on - month change; the social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets on March 16, 2026 was 63,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons; the latest warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead was 58,024 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150 tons [11][13]. - Main Logic: In the spot market, the spot discount has widened, the price difference between primary and recycled lead ingots has remained stable, and the futures warehouse receipt has decreased. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, the lead price has remained stable, the loss of recycled lead smelting has narrowed slightly, smelters have resumed production one after another, and the weekly output of lead ingots has increased. On the demand side, at the initial stage of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more wait - and - see, and the orders for electric bicycles have weakened slightly. However, as it gradually enters the traditional consumption peak season, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually recover [14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - View: The market fluctuates, and attention should be paid to changes on the supply side. It is expected to show a fluctuating and strong trend, and the follow - up progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [15][16]. - Information Analysis: On March 23, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57,632 tons, a month - on - month increase of 942 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 282,792 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons; on March 23, the market price of high - nickel iron in China was 1,080 - 1,110 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), the same as on the 20th; on March 16, GEM stated in an interactive platform that in February 2026, an accident occurred in the temporary slag storage area of its Qingmeibang Park in Indonesia due to a landslide caused by heavy rain. The company has completed the rectification as required, and there is no issue of license revocation. This rectification only involves part of the HPAL production capacity of Qingmeibang, which has little impact on the overall operation of the company. The company is accelerating the completion and acceptance of the permanent slag storage, aiming to fully release the production capacity in the shortest time [15]. - Main Logic: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel output decreased month - on - month in February, and the output of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia also decreased to a certain extent month - on - month in February. The overall supply - side pressure of nickel has slightly decreased, but the overall visible inventory still remains at a high level. The subsequent realization of peak - season demand needs to be focused on. In terms of policy disturbances, according to the news from Mysteel, Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota for 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of the nickel balance. The follow - up changes in Indonesia's policy need to be continuously tracked [15][16]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - View: The nickel iron price remains stable, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. It is expected to show a fluctuating and strong trend, and the follow - up progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [17]. - Information Analysis: On March 23, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 41,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 827 tons; in the spot market, on March 23, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 to the stainless - steel main contract was 315 yuan/ton; on March 23, the market price of high - nickel iron in China was 1,080 - 1,110 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), the same as on the 20th [17]. - Main Logic: The nickel iron price is strong, and the chromium end is stable. There is still a certain cost support for stainless steel. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production schedule is expected to decline significantly month - on - month, but in March, the production schedule is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand still maintains a relatively cautious attitude. The subsequent realization of the peak season needs to be focused on. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipt is at a low level [17]. 3.1.9 Tin - View: The macro sentiment is weak, and tin prices fluctuate. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating operation [18][19]. - Information Analysis: On March 23, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 35 tons month - on - month to 8,920 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 508 tons month - on - month to 8,978 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by 2,298 lots month - on - month to 75,930 lots; in the spot market, on March 23, the average price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingot was 341,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12,150 yuan/ton [18]. - Main Logic: The supply problem of tin has been alleviated to some extent. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mining areas in low - altitude areas, and it is expected that the ore output in Wa State will gradually increase; in Indonesia, according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Administration has set the tin production target for 2026 at 65,860 tons, higher than the previously expected quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation has become looser; the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, and the supply risk remains high. In the future, although the supply - side problem of tin has been alleviated compared with before, the supply in the main production areas is still vulnerable. On the demand side, the rapid development of AI has driven the semiconductor industry to maintain high growth, but the global new photovoltaic installed capacity may not increase this year, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may decline. However, other traditional fields such as tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals remain basically stable. Considering the inventory reconstruction in the industrial chain, it is expected that the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. Overall, there are still supply risks, and with the resilience of downstream demand, it is expected that there will still be support at the bottom of tin prices. However, in the short term, it is suppressed by weak macro sentiment and the expectation of supply recovery, and the price will maintain a fluctuating operation [18][19]. 3.2行情监测 - No specific monitoring content provided in the text. 3.3中信期货商品指数（2026 - 03 - 23） - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index was 2,531.78, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2,810.80, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%; the industrial product index was 2,583.01, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% [147]. - Plate Index: The non - ferrous metal index on March 23, 2026 was 2,553.80, with a daily increase or decrease of - 0.91%, a five - day increase or decrease of - 5.41%, a one - month increase or decrease of - 4.36%, and a year - to - date increase or decrease of - 4.92% [149].