供应扰动风险仍在，碳酸锂表现稍强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply disturbance risk persists, and lithium carbonate shows slightly stronger performance. The supply - demand expectation of new energy metals has weakened. In the short term, the demand expectation is weak, and new energy metals are under pressure, but the supply disturbance supports the price of lithium carbonate. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - side contraction expectation path of polysilicon has changed from administrative clearance to market - based clearance, with its price expected to fluctuate widely; industrial silicon supply and demand are in surplus, and its price is expected to be under pressure; lithium ore production capacity is rising, and demand growth is also fast, with the expected surplus narrowing, and the supply - demand improvement is expected to push up the price center [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Price Information: As of March 23, the price of oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang was 8,650 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 in Xinjiang was 8,850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,750 yuan/ton. As of last week, the domestic inventory was 435,550 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; market inventory was 184,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; factory inventory was 251,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. In February, the output of industrial silicon was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%; the cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. In February, the export of industrial silicon was 47,520 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5%; the cumulative export from January to February was 113,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.9% [7]. - Main Logic: Geopolitical conflicts cause energy concerns, and the recent rise in coal prices provides cost support for industrial silicon. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the production capacity of large factories in Xinjiang has partially recovered after the Spring Festival, and the operation rates in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia are at a high level, with the supply in the northwest currently stable; the operation rate in the southwest has dropped to a very low level during the dry season, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. In the long run, the over - supply pressure of industrial silicon still exists. On the demand side, polysilicon has a large inventory consumption pressure, some silicon material factories continue to shut down for maintenance, and the demand for industrial silicon in March is still weak; silicone enterprises continue to hold prices, and the demand for industrial silicon is mainly based on rigid needs; the operation rate of the aluminum alloy is expected to recover after the Spring Festival, but the demand for industrial silicon is limited [7]. - Outlook: Industrial silicon is still in a loose pattern. In the short term, the rise in coal prices provides cost support, and the silicon price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Price Information: On March 23, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 43.5 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/kg. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,810 lots, with a month - on - month change of 0 lots [8]. - Main Logic: Recently, the macro - hedging sentiment has increased, and most risk assets have declined, dragging down the polysilicon price. On the supply side, it is currently the dry season, and the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest is still in a state of reduction, with the overall production at a low level. On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon remains weak, the silicon wafer production schedule is still low, the polysilicon inventory is continuously accumulating, and the number of warehouse receipts is also increasing, putting pressure on the price. In the medium - to long - term, considering that the polysilicon supply is also shrinking, and leading enterprises are strengthening integration and mergers, the long - term supply and demand of polysilicon are expected to tighten, and the price may show a wide - range fluctuation [8]. - Outlook: The weak demand drags down the polysilicon price, but considering that the supply is still at a low level, the polysilicon price may show a wide - range fluctuation in the medium - to long - term [8]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Price Information: On March 23, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.6% to 149,040 yuan/ton. The morning - session spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 145,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 250 yuan/ton, and the evening - session market price was 144,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 600 yuan/ton; the morning - session price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 142,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 500 yuan/ton, and the evening - session price was 144,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 600 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 781 lots to 33,537 lots [9]. - Main Logic: The supply disturbance has not been resolved, and the terminal demand has weakened. The lithium price fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. In the first quarter of 2026, the supply remains relatively strong. According to customs data, the imports of lithium ore and lithium carbonate from January to February have maintained good growth. At the same time, the demand is differentiated. The sales volume of new energy vehicles is not good, but the production of cathode materials at the primary end is still booming, which needs further verification. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are in a tight balance. The Middle East geopolitical events cause the market to switch between recession expectations and energy substitution expectations, and the market lacks a strong driving force, so the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Outlook: The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the demand shows signs of weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No new content provided other than what is in the "行情观点" section. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No new content provided other than what is in the "行情观点" section. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No new content provided other than what is in the "行情观点" section. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - 综合指数: The comprehensive index is not described in detail. The commodity 20 index was 2,810.80, a decrease of 0.34%; the industrial product index was 2,583.01, an increase of 1.73% [48]. - 板块指数: For the new energy commodity index on March 23, 2026, the current price was 479.82, with a daily decline of 1.77%, a decline of 7.50% in the past 5 days, a decline of 7.56% in the past month, and a decline of 5.86% since the beginning of the year [50].