原油：多单持有，防范短线和谈扰动

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report doesn't provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Hold long positions in crude oil and guard against short - term negotiation disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI April crude futures fell $10.10, or 10.28%, to $88.13 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures for May fell $12.25, or 10.92%, to $99.94 per barrel; SC2605 crude futures fell 62.90 yuan per barrel, or 7.81%, to 742.20 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Different crude oils have different spread changes, such as Arab Extra Light with a spread of -$5.79, a -$1.94 MoM change due to price disadvantage expansion; Vasconia spread turned positive with a +$1.83 MoM change as price shifted from disadvantage to advantage [1] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties' spread fell significantly by -$7.11 MoM, due to the deterioration of refining value and price disadvantage; Urals' spread narrowed but still had a large arbitrage space as its price advantage to Bonny Light narrowed [3] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH spread rose significantly by $3.6 MoM, driven by strong refining value; Azeri Light spread turned negative with a -$2.39 MoM change as price disadvantage and costs offset the strong refining value [6] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend's spread rose significantly (negative value shrank) as the relative price advantage of benchmark oil Urals narrowed; Azeri Light's spread rose as refining value improved despite Urals' large price advantage [7] Key Market News - Japan's February core CPI annual rate was 1.6%, lower than the expected 1.70% and the previous 2.00%; New Zealand's central bank governor said inflation and supply - side impacts would last even if the war ended; Kuwait's power lines stopped due to damage; the US envoy went to Pakistan for potential talks; Iran is reviewing the US letter; Japan may intervene in oil futures; Trump said there were productive talks with Iran and would suspend strikes for five days; Iran said it controlled the Strait of Hormuz and didn't need to deploy mines [8][10] Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is 1, with a range of [-2, 2], where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [9]