铁矿石：技术面高位，波动加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The strength of iron ore prices is not driven by supply - demand factors but by structural contradictions in cost and inventory, including rising energy costs and shipping freight, low available port inventories, and restricted deliverable items with a higher price of the lowest deliverable item [1] - The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, focusing on adjusting the economic structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [2] - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises is 228.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.95 tons [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of I2605 is 819.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton (0.43%); the position is 441,933 hands, a decrease of 8,257 hands [1] - Spot Price: The prices of various iron ore types (such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc.) have different changes, with some rising and some remaining stable [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis and spread of different iron ore varieties have changed, such as the basis of I2605 against Super Special and Jinbuba has decreased by 1.3 yuan/ton, and the spread between different contracts has also changed [1] Macro and Industry News - The strength of iron ore prices is due to cost and inventory contradictions rather than supply - demand factors [1] - The 2026 government work report has adjusted the GDP growth target and increased the scale of policy - based financial instruments [2] - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises has increased [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a moderately positive trend [3]