棉花：关注外部市场影响20260324

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market lacks new fundamental drivers, and the overall market fluctuation is small. The domestic cotton spot trading is relatively sluggish, while the local locked - basis trading is relatively good. The domestic cotton - textile enterprises face pressure from imported yarn, and downstream weaving mainly follows small and urgent orders, maintaining just - in - time inventory replenishment [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 15,280 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.43%, and the night - session closing price was 15,310 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase. CY2605 closed at 21,535 yuan/ton with a 0.28% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 21,555 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. ICE US Cotton 5 closed at 67.23 cents/pound with a - 0.16% decrease. The trading volume of CF2605 was 579,050 lots, a decrease of 3,966 lots from the previous day, and the position was 1,058,090 lots, a decrease of 8,152 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 11,601 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 14,439 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,384, a decrease of 16, and the effective forecast was 349, an increase of 21. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 251, a decrease of 16, and the effective forecast was 67, an increase of 200 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,519 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan or 0.40% from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,458 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan or 0.40%. The price in Shandong was 16,618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan or - 0.51%. The price in Hebei was 16,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or - 0.18%. The 3128B index was 16,592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan or - 0.34%. The Cotlook:A index was 78.25 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.10 cents or - 1.39%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,582 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan or - 0.14% [1] - Spread Data: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading is relatively sluggish, and the local locked - basis trading is relatively good. The spot basis is generally stable, and individual cotton merchants have slightly increased the basis. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 South Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B is CF05 + 1150 - 1200, and more sales bases are CF05 + 1200 and above. The mainstream sales basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B is CF05 + 1300 - 1550 [2] - Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises: The local quotation of pure - cotton yarn is stable with a slight decrease. Affected by the price advantage of imported yarn, the low - count yarn has been having poor sales. The current inventory of imported yarn at ports is low, and the local open - end spinning trading has slightly improved. Downstream weaving mainly follows small and urgent orders and maintains just - in - time inventory replenishment. Due to insufficient new orders, the quotation of some conventional varieties of individual spinning enterprises has been slightly reduced [2] - US Cotton: Yesterday, the ICE cotton futures closed slightly down 0.16% after intraday fluctuations. The market lacks new fundamental drivers, and the overall market fluctuation is small [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]