贵金属：贵金属日报2026-03-24-20260324

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The escalation of the US-Iran war has become the core disturbance factor in the global market, triggering expectations of a significant increase in crude oil prices and further fueling global inflation concerns. In this context, central banks around the world have adopted a cautious approach to monetary policy easing, with major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank all choosing to maintain current interest rates. The latest statement from Chicago Fed President Goolsbee sent a hawkish signal, indicating that further interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out. The central banks' cautious stance has further strengthened the market trend of a simultaneous increase in real interest rates and the US dollar. Coupled with a continuous decline in the market's expectation of near-term interest rate cuts, the US dollar index has strengthened, and US bond yields have risen, putting continuous pressure on the valuation of precious metals. If the US dollar remains strong and the expectation of interest rate cuts continues to be postponed, the downward pressure will persist. The report suggests a cautious bearish strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 920 - 1050 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 14,500 - 20,500 yuan/kilogram [4]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 1.30% to 980.00 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.88% to 17,246.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.37% to 4,423.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.49% to 69.70 US dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.34%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.11 [2]. Policy Information - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75%. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that inflation has become the primary risk, and an interest rate hike cannot be ruled out, but there is still room for interest rate cuts within the year. Fed Governor Milan said that if there is a second-round effect of inflation and wage increases, there is a theoretical need for an interest rate hike, but there is currently no need to consider it, and he still expects four interest rate cuts in 2026 [2]. Geopolitical Information - US President Trump posted on social media that the US and Iran had conducted good and productive talks on comprehensively resolving hostilities in the Middle East in the past two days, and the talks would continue this week. He has instructed the Department of Defense to postpone a five-day military strike on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure, provided that the talks are successful. The Iranian Foreign Ministry, senior leadership, and Iranian media all denied having negotiations with the US, stating that Trump's aim was to lower energy prices and gain time for his military plan [3]. Gold and Silver Data Summary - COMEX Gold: The closing price of the active contract was not available, the trading volume was not available, the open interest decreased by 0.62% to 41.14 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.07% to 996 tons [6]. - LBMA Gold: The closing price decreased by 0.82% to 4,562.55 US dollars/ounce, the closing price of the active contract in yuan/gram decreased by 9.55% to 940.00 yuan/gram, the trading volume increased by 25.38% to 85.46 million lots, the open interest decreased by 2.27% to 29.31 million lots, the inventory decreased by 0.09% to 106.75 tons, the settled funds decreased by 11.60% to 44.082 billion yuan, and the closing price of the short-to-long position decreased by 11.49% to 920.99 yuan/gram [6]. - SHFE Gold: The trading volume of AuT+D increased by 24.04% to 104.37 tons, and the open interest increased by 6.20% to 241.49 tons [6]. - COMEX Silver: The closing price of the active contract was not available, the open interest decreased by 0.61% to 11.48 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.18% to 10,329 tons [6]. - LBMA Silver: The closing price increased by 3.83% to 72.37 US dollars/ounce, the closing price of the active contract in yuan/kilogram decreased by 12.56% to 15,411.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume increased by 10.80% to 202.63 million lots, the open interest decreased by 0.58% to 45.60 million lots, the inventory increased by 0.57% to 364.55 tons, the settled funds decreased by 13.07% to 18.973 billion yuan, and the closing price of the short-to-long position decreased by 14.12% to 15,269.00 yuan/kilogram [6]. - SHFE Silver: The trading volume of AgT+D decreased by 7.90% to 478.84 tons, and the open interest decreased by 0.08% to 2,916.42 tons [6]. ETF Holdings - Gold ETFs: The iShare US gold ETF's holding decreased by 0.31% to 475.87 tons, the SGBS Swiss gold ETF's holding decreased by 0.08% to 35.05 tons, while the GBS UK, PHAU UK, and GOLD UK gold ETFs' holdings remained unchanged [67]. - Silver ETFs: The closing price of silver ETFs increased by 1.54% to 62.47 US dollars, the holding increased by 1.74% to 15,513.67 tons, the settled funds of the SLV US silver ETF decreased by 5.50% to 3.352 billion US dollars, the trading volume increased by 27.25% to 7,182.99 million shares, and the holdings of the ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada silver ETFs remained unchanged [67].