合成橡胶：地缘反复，日内宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral stance [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, synthetic rubber prices are expected to decline from their high levels due to the drop in international night - session energy prices. However, the domestic fundamentals of butadiene rubber and butadiene are still moderately strong, providing support for the downside of butadiene rubber. Overall, butadiene rubber is expected to experience wide intraday fluctuations, and geopolitical conflicts may significantly increase intraday volatility. The trading logic changes rapidly following geopolitical news, and investors are advised to manage risks [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber main contract (04 contract), the daily closing price was 17,470 yuan/ton (up 1,485 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 493,113 lots (up from 370,451 lots), the open interest was 88,892 lots (up 7,771 lots), and the trading turnover was 4,145,741 ten - thousand yuan (up 1,255,840 ten - thousand yuan) [1] 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis (Shandong butadiene - futures main contract) was - 170 yuan (up 315 yuan from the previous day), the monthly spread (BR04 - BR05) was - 15 yuan (down 5 yuan from the previous day). The price of butadiene in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) was 17,200 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan from the previous day. The Shandong butadiene market price (delivery product) was 17,300 yuan/ton, up 1,800 yuan from the previous day [1] 3.1.3 Spot Market - The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) was 17,500 yuan/ton (up 1,500 yuan from the previous day), the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 16,700 yuan/ton (up 1,700 yuan from the previous day). The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu was 17,900 yuan/ton (up 1,850 yuan from the previous day), and the mainstream price in Shandong was 18,000 yuan/ton (up 2,050 yuan from the previous day) [1] 3.1.4 Fundamental Indicators - The butadiene rubber operating rate was 50.9763% (down 3.66 percentage points from the previous day), the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 21,040 yuan/ton (up 2,060 yuan from the previous day), and the butadiene rubber profit was - 3,540 yuan/ton (down 860 yuan from the previous day) [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 42,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. During the period, butadiene rubber production was affected by tight raw material supply and a sharp increase in prices, resulting in large losses for production enterprises. Coupled with the decline in the load of some devices or upcoming maintenance, the available supply was tight, leading to a decrease in the inventory of sample production enterprises. High order - opening costs forced some traders to raise prices passively, but there were some profit - taking and arbitrage resources in the market with certain price advantages, and downstream procurement was cautious, resulting in slow sales and only a slight decrease in the inventory of sample trading enterprises [1]