需求淡季不淡，煤价震荡上行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a resilient demand despite being in a traditionally weak season, with coal prices showing an upward trend [1] - Domestic thermal coal prices are stable with slight increases, supported by both domestic supply recovery and international energy prices remaining high [12][18] - Coking coal prices are also on the rise, driven by recovering demand from the steel industry and limited new mining capacity [32][34] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market is showing a mixed performance, with coal stocks underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.19% [5] - The coal sector specifically saw a decline of 2.46%, with major coal companies mostly experiencing losses [5] Thermal Coal - The domestic thermal coal market is characterized by a "mild increase in domestic supply, tightening overseas constraints, and resilient demand" [12] - Prices for thermal coal at major production areas have increased, with Qinhuangdao port prices rising to 735 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6 CNY/ton [18] - The overall demand remains robust due to recovery in non-electric sectors such as chemicals and cement [12][14] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is showing a positive trend with supply gradually increasing and demand from steel mills recovering [32] - Prices for coking coal have risen, with Shanxi's main coking coal priced at 1620 CNY/ton, up by 50 CNY/ton week-on-week [33] - The market sentiment is improving due to the recovery in the black series futures market and the upcoming peak demand season in the steel industry [32][34] Shipping Conditions - Shipping metrics indicate an increase in both the number of vessels and shipping costs, reflecting a rise in demand for coal transportation [42] Industry News - The National Bureau of Statistics reported mixed price changes in coal types, with thermal coal prices increasing while coking coal prices decreased [43] - Significant projects are underway to stabilize coal production and enhance energy supply security, including the construction of new coal power projects [44][45]