格林大华期货早盘提示：钢矿-20260324

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Oscillating Bullish" rating for the steel and ore industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The strong rise in coking coal prices drives up the prices of downstream finished products. With both the shipping and arrival of iron ore increasing, and the shipping volume slightly higher than the average, it is expected that steel and ore will oscillate bullishly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore closed up. At night, hot-rolled coils closed up, while rebar and iron ore closed down [1] 3.2 Important Information - Zhongtian Iron and Steel Group kept the ex-factory prices of rebar, high-speed wire rods, and wire rods in late March unchanged, with the HRB400 Φ18mm specification priced at 3,400 yuan/ton [1] - As of the end of February 2026, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (guns) in China reached 21.01 million [1] - US President Trump said that the US had a "strong" dialogue with Iran and reached an agreement to suspend attacks on its energy facilities for 5 days. He also said that the US was negotiating a broader agreement with Iran, and that an agreement "could be reached within 5 days or even less." However, Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Trump's remarks were aimed at lowering energy prices and buying time for military operations [1] - Affected by Trump's remarks on US-Iran negotiations, global financial markets were in turmoil. US crude oil and Brent crude oil tumbled, closing down more than 9%. The yield of US Treasury bonds turned from a sharp rise to a fall, with the 2-year US Treasury yield fluctuating by more than 22 basis points. Precious metals rebounded, with COMEX silver closing down 0.49%, after falling more than 12% at one point; COMEX gold fell 3.6%, after falling more than 10% at one point [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On the 23rd, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi Steel hot-rolled coils was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - On the 23rd, the coking coal spot market remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market improved, and the volume of trade shipments to the two ports increased significantly compared with the previous working day. The total inventory at the two ports increased slightly compared with the previous working day. Rizhao Port's inventory increased by 1 to 45, and Qingdao Port's inventory increased by 6 to 77, with a total inventory of 122, an increase of 9 compared with last week. The current prices of various types of coking coal at the ports are as follows: for trade cash settlement, the spot price of quasi-primary (wet quenched) coking coal is 1,470 yuan/ton, the spot price of quasi-primary (dry quenched) coking coal is 1,670 yuan/ton, the spot price of primary (wet quenched) coking coal is 1,570 yuan/ton, the spot price of coking coal particles is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the spot price of coking coal powder is 970 yuan/ton [1] - From March 16th to March 22nd, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments by Mysteel were 31.443 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 955,000 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.594 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 950,000 tons. Australia's shipments were 19.957 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.204 million tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 16.348 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 476,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 5.638 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 254,000 tons [1] - From March 16th to March 22nd, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.831 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 661,000 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 22.716 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 566,000 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 10.504 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.798 million tons [1] 3.4 Trading Strategies - For single positions, short-term operations are recommended [1] - For arbitrage, continue to hold the strategy of going long on the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar. As of Monday, the closing spread was 176. It is recommended to raise the stop-loss spread to 130 and set the take-profit spread at around 200 [2] - The rebar-to-iron ore ratio is 3.85. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to go long on the rebar-to-iron ore ratio, that is, go long on rebar and short on iron ore, with the target ratio rising above 4. At the same time, attention should be paid to the possible impact of the later shift of the main contract [2]