Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a "weak balance" state with marginal improvement in demand and gradual inventory reduction, but no strong trend - driving force has been formed yet. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2] - Due to resource - structure issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, iron ore prices are oscillating at a high level, and the amplitude of recent fluctuations has increased [5] - In the medium - to - long term, the trend of commodity bulls is not over, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the phased callback pressure of prices under the macro - recession expectation and the high - volatility attribute under the uncertain Middle - East situation. The black sector is under relatively low pressure [9][15] - The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, cost - push factors, and supply - contraction expectations. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10] - For coking coal and coke, in the short term, the fundamental factors supporting a sharp price rebound are insufficient, and short - term long - position operations or temporary waiting are recommended. In the medium - to - long term, coking coal prices are still optimistic, especially from June to October [15] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, supported by cost in the short term, while polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate and find a bottom due to weak fundamentals [18][20][22] - Float - glass prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand and inventory changes in major production areas. Soda - ash prices are expected to continue to oscillate widely at a low level [25][27] Summary by Directory Steel 行情资讯 - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3154 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton (0.992%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 59,955 tons, a net increase of 10,669 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.3514 million lots, a net decrease of 35,832 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; that in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3330 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (1.000%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 522,206 tons, a net decrease of 589 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.0554 million lots, a net decrease of 42,832 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; that in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] 策略观点 - The commodity index continued to oscillate at a high level, and the prices of finished steel products generally maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger trend. The real - estate data from January to February were still weak, indicating insufficient recovery momentum in real - estate investment. The support of real - estate for steel demand is still limited in the short term, and terminal demand is likely to remain weak. The demand for hot - rolled coils has recovered rapidly, production has increased slightly, and inventory has entered the destocking stage. The supply and demand of rebar have both increased, and inventory has decreased slightly, showing a neutral performance overall [2] Iron Ore 行情资讯 - The main iron - ore contract (I2605) closed at 819.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.43% (+3.50). The open - interest change was - 8257 lots, changing to 441,900 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 875,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 28.89 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.41% [4] 策略观点 - In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments in the latest period increased month - on - month. The shipments from Australia increased, those from Brazil remained basically stable, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily average pig - iron output according to the Steel Union's data increased by 69,500 tons month - on - month to 2.2815 million tons. The blast furnaces that resumed production were mainly those in Hebei after the end of production restrictions, and it is expected that pig - iron output will continue to rise. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to rise slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory decreased slightly from the high level, and the steel mills' imported - ore inventory increased. Overall, the overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level, and the BHP negotiation issue intensifies the expectation of resource - structure tension. The Middle - East conflict affects the commodity market, increasing freight costs and slightly disturbing the supply side. The demand for pig - iron is gradually recovering after the end of production restrictions. Affected by resource - structure issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, iron - ore prices are oscillating at a high level [5] Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron 行情资讯 - On March 23, benefiting from the sharp rise in coking - coal prices, the prices of ferroalloys continued to rise. The main manganese - silicon contract (SM605) closed up 2.44% at 6556 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 6517 manganese - silicon in Tianjin was 6300 yuan/ton, equivalent to 6490 yuan on the futures - delivery basis, with a discount of 66 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main silicon - iron contract (SF605) closed up 3.17% at 6120 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 72 silicon - iron in Tianjin was 6100 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures price [8] 策略观点 - The market has shifted from early inflation and supply - side disturbance logic to stagflation and recession pricing and trading. The equity and commodity markets have experienced significant corrections. In the medium - to - long term, the trend of commodity bulls is not over, but in the short term, attention should be paid to price - callback pressure and high - volatility attributes. The black sector is under relatively low pressure. The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been priced in. The fundamentals of silicon - iron are good. The future market trends of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, cost - push factors from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment, and supply - contraction (or contraction expectation) factors in the silicon - iron segment. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese - ore exports and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke 行情资讯 - On March 23, due to the high - level crude - oil price, the "energy substitution" sentiment for coal was released intensively. Coking - coal prices soared in the night session on Friday and almost all contracts hit the daily limit on Monday. Coke prices followed coking - coal prices up. The main coking - coal contract (JM2605) closed up 10.12% at 1289.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1464.9 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1272.5 yuan/ton on the futures - delivery basis, with a discount of 17.0 yuan/ton to the futures price; the quoted price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1340 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1324.5 yuan/ton on the futures - delivery basis, with a premium of 35.0 yuan/ton to the futures price; the quoted price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1240 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1215 yuan/ton on the futures - delivery basis, with a discount of 74.5 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main coke contract (J2605) closed up 6.12% at 1847.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1725.5 yuan/ton on the futures - delivery basis, with a discount of 121.5 yuan/ton to the futures price; the quoted price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1710.5 yuan/ton on the futures - delivery basis, with a discount of 136.5 yuan/ton to the futures price [12] 策略观点 - The market has shifted to stagflation and recession trading. In the short term, attention should be paid to price - callback pressure and high - volatility attributes. The black sector is under relatively low pressure. The energy attribute of coking coal may be further stimulated, but the high volatility of oil and gas will also lead to high volatility in coking - coal prices. In terms of the supply - demand structure, coking coal and coke are in a relatively loose state in the short term. The positive aspect is that downstream enterprises have carried out some pre - stocking, and the destocking of steel inventory has temporarily alleviated market concerns. Overall, the fundamental factors supporting a sharp price rebound are insufficient in the short term. The current price of coking coal around 1300 yuan/ton is not low in valuation, and there is a risk of "bad warehouse receipts" in non - main contracts. In the short term, short - term long - position operations or temporary waiting are recommended. In the medium - to - long term, coking - coal prices are still optimistic, especially from June to October [15] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 行情资讯 - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main industrial - silicon futures contract (SI2605) was 8575 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.42% (+120). The weighted - contract open - interest change was - 15,780 lots, changing to 358,233 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month, with a basis of 575 yuan/ton for the main contract; the quoted price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 225 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures - delivery price [17] - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main polysilicon futures contract (PS2605) was 35,435 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6.17% (- 2330). The weighted - contract open - interest change was - 1555 lots, changing to 49,700 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 41.5 yuan/kg, down 2.5 yuan/kg month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 41.5 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg month - on - month; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 43.25 yuan/kg, down 0.25 yuan/kg month - on - month. The basis of the main contract was 7815 yuan/ton [19] 策略观点 - Industrial silicon: The price of industrial silicon rose first and then fell, oscillating. On the supply side, the output of industrial silicon continued to rise slightly, and the operating rates in some regions increased. On the demand side, the demand improvement was weak, and the price drive was insufficient. Due to the high energy prices and the relatively strong coal - coke prices, the cost can provide strong support for industrial - silicon prices in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate [18] - Polysilicon: The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak, and the price has further declined. The inventory in the silicon - wafer segment is still at a high level, the downstream demand is weak, and the negative feedback to the upstream silicon - material segment continues. The inventory of polysilicon factories continues to rise, and the downstream restocking is only for rigid demand. The trading atmosphere is weak. The trading center of the market has declined again. The open interest and liquidity of polysilicon futures are still at a relatively low level since listing. The current weak downstream feedback and high silicon - material inventory pattern remain unchanged, and there is a negative - feedback sentiment between the futures and spot prices. The support for the futures price continues to decline. Considering the Middle - East conflict and the decline of the futures price below 40,000 yuan, the price is expected to oscillate and find a bottom [20][22] Glass and Soda - Ash 行情资讯 - Glass: At 15:00 on Monday, the main glass contract closed at 1082 yuan/ton, up 2.66% (+28). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; that in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 19, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 74.436 million cases, down 1.413 million cases (- 1.86%) from the previous week. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 3485 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 36,819 lots [24] - Soda - ash: At 15:00 on Monday, the main soda - ash contract closed at 1256 yuan/ton, up 4.49% (+54). The quoted price of heavy soda - ash in Shahe was 1246 yuan, up 54 yuan from the previous day. On March 19, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.8538 million tons, down 77,900 tons (- 1.86%) from the previous week, including 890,700 tons of heavy - soda - ash inventory, down 27,400 tons, and 963,100 tons of light - soda - ash inventory, down 50,500 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 35,840 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 34,576 lots [26] 策略观点 - Glass: On the spot level, the slight contraction of supply supports market sentiment, but the high - inventory pressure and weak demand still restrict the upward space of prices. The terminal recovery is weaker than expected, and the weak real - estate completion data further suppresses the long - term demand expectation. The transmission path from policy benefits to actual demand has not been realized. It is expected that the float - glass market will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" period and the inventory changes in major production areas. The reference range for the main contract is 1030 - 1100 yuan/ton [25] - Soda - ash: On the spot level, the supply - side disturbance factors of soda - ash are limited, and the overall price maintains a high - level oscillation pattern. The cold - repair scale of downstream float - glass has expanded, and the rigid demand for heavy soda - ash is under pressure; the demand for light soda - ash also lacks obvious improvement, and downstream enterprises mostly maintain rigid - demand procurement, with insufficient willingness to actively restock, and the market lacks substantial buying support. The current supply - demand pattern of soda - ash remains loose. Although the inventory shows a slight decline, the destocking rhythm has not been effectively transmitted to the price. It is expected that the soda - ash price will continue to oscillate widely at a low level. The reference range for the main contract is 1200 - 1260 yuan/ton [27]
黑色建材日报 2026-03-24-20260324
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-24 02:14