海外宏观周报：地缘冲突升温，市场波动加剧-20260324

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Global financial markets experienced significant volatility due to escalating geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, with the probability of a ceasefire before May 31 dropping to 50%[2] - The current earnings per share (EPS) growth for U.S. stocks remains strong, supporting the market despite geopolitical tensions, indicating that recent adjustments are more about timing than a trend reversal[2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for February showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a month-on-month rise of 0.7%, both exceeding market expectations[10] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate, but Chairman Powell signaled a more hawkish stance than expected, emphasizing that rate cuts will not occur unless inflation shows progress[3] - The dot plot indicates only one expected rate cut in 2026, leading to a market adjustment in rate cut expectations, with current pricing suggesting rates will remain high throughout the year[3] - Historical trends suggest that U.S. economic and employment data may underperform in Q2, potentially allowing for a rate cut in the latter half of the year[3] Group 3: Risks and Market Sentiment - Risks from geopolitical conflicts could lead to further increases in oil prices, exacerbating global stagflation risks[4] - The labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims at 205,000, lower than both the previous figure and market expectations, indicating a lack of strong layoffs[10] - The NAHB housing market index for March recorded a slight increase to 38, still below the neutral level of 50, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate sector[10]