国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260324

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Core Viewpoints - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out, and the price has experienced a nine - day consecutive decline [4][6]. - Silver: It has fallen from the oscillation platform [2]. - Copper: Disturbances have increased, and the price fluctuation range has been magnified [2][8]. - Zinc: It has rebounded from the bottom [2][11]. - Lead: It lacks a clear driving force, and the price fluctuates [2][15]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [2][18]. - Aluminum: Inventory accumulation has slowed down; Alumina: It is oscillating at a high level; Casting aluminum alloy: It follows electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - Platinum: It has shown some recovery [27]. - Palladium: It mainly oscillates [26]. - Nickel: There are contradictions between the macro and the ore end, and the short - term long - short game has intensified; Stainless steel: It is suppressed by overseas macro factors and supported by real - world costs [2][31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 940.00, with a daily decline of 9.55%, and the night - session closing price was 980.00, with a decline of 1.30%. The price of Comex Gold 2602 was 4410.40, with a decline of 1.82%. The price of London Gold spot was 4407.35, with a decline of 1.88% [4]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 386,422, an increase of 43,191 compared with the previous day, and the position was 62,764, a decrease of 6,229 [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 106,746 kilograms, a decrease of 99 kilograms compared with the previous day [4]. - News: Spot gold has experienced a nine - day consecutive decline. Trump said that the dialogue with Iran in the past two days was "fruitful", and the US is coordinating talks with Iran in Islamabad this week, but Iran denied the negotiation [4][6][7]. Silver - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 15498, with a daily decline of 12.30%, and the night - session closing price was 17246.00, with an increase of 3.47%. The price of Comex Silver 2602 was 69.320, with an increase of 2.23% [4]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 136,668, a decrease of 2,980 compared with the previous day, and the position was 55,828, a decrease of 3,257 [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 364,549 kilograms, an increase of 2054 kilograms compared with the previous day [4]. Copper - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 92,100, with a daily decline of 2.79%, and the night - session closing price was 94840, with an increase of 2.98%. The price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 12,221, with an increase of 3.27% [8]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 441,582, a decrease of 26,409 compared with the previous day, and the position was 576,091, an increase of 1,857 [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 274,115 tons, a decrease of 13,737 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory of LME Copper was 347,475 tons, an increase of 5,125 tons [8]. - News: Zambia aims to triple copper production by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah. China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year, and Peru's copper production in January increased by 3% year - on - year [8][10]. Zinc - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22800, with a decline of 0.59%. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3056, with a decline of 0.57% [11]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 120371, a decrease of 39372 compared with the previous day, and the position was 103488, a decrease of 2642. The trading volume of LME Zinc was 11509, a decrease of 7462, and the position was 206153, an increase of 27 [11]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 100598 tons, a decrease of 1911 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory of LME Zinc was 117175 tons, a decrease of 500 tons [11]. - News: The US Energy Secretary said that the possibility of releasing strategic oil reserves again was low [12]. Lead - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16395, with an increase of 0.64%. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 1889, with a decline of 0.42% [15]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 63444, a decrease of 13162 compared with the previous day, and the position was 89207, a decrease of 3934. The trading volume of LME Lead was 7154, a decrease of 3005, and the position was 174625, a decrease of 12316 [15]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 58024 tons, a decrease of 150 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory of LME Lead was 284075 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [15]. - News: The US is coordinating talks with Iran in Islamabad this week, but Iran denied the negotiation [16]. Tin - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 328,300, with a decline of 4.37%, and the night - session closing price was 348,950, with an increase of 3.23%. The price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,500, with an increase of 3.87% [19]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,175, a decrease of 36,348 compared with the previous day, and the position was 24,984, a decrease of 2,200. The trading volume of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 944, a decrease of 232, and the position was 21,342, a decrease of 28 [19]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,978 tons, a decrease of 508 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory of LME Tin was 8,805 tons, a decrease of 115 tons [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24020, a decrease of 160 compared with the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3041, an increase of 14 compared with the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22810, a decrease of 190 compared with the previous day [22]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 561560, an increase of 101192 compared with the previous day, and the position was 280023, a decrease of 12381. The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 707158, a decrease of 273561 compared with the previous day, and the position was 245836, a decrease of 22397. The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 8397, a decrease of 983 compared with the previous day, and the position was 4781, a decrease of 294 [22]. - Inventory: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 135.70 million tons, unchanged compared with the previous day. The inventory of LME aluminum ingots was 42.97 million tons, a decrease of 0.31 million tons compared with the previous day [22]. - News: Iran denied the negotiation with the US, and the Fed official said that the short - term oil price fluctuation was not enough to change the expectation of four interest rate cuts this year [24]. Platinum and Palladium - Price: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 457.75, with a decline of 10.20%. The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 327.85, with a decline of 11.12% [26]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 19,143 kilograms, an increase of 10,450 compared with the previous day, and the position was 21,471 kilograms, a decrease of 2,175. The trading volume of NYMEX Platinum was 24.502 kilograms, a decrease of 6.866 compared with the previous day, and the position was 48,934 kilograms, an increase of 7.060. The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 7.127 kilograms, an increase of 3,530 compared with the previous day, and the position was 8.529 kilograms, a decrease of 746. The trading volume of NYMEX Palladium was 23,275 kilograms, an increase of 8.050 compared with the previous day, and the position was 46.161 kilograms, an increase of 146 [26]. - Inventory: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum was 579,274 ounces, unchanged compared with the previous day. The inventory of NYMEX Palladium was 248.374 ounces, an increase of 3.197 compared with the previous day [26]. - News: Japan is considering intervening in oil futures, and the Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 132,980, a decrease of 180 compared with the previous day. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,035, a decrease of 30 compared with the previous day [31]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 463,882, a decrease of 73,519 compared with the previous day. The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 232,842, a decrease of 93,283 compared with the previous day [31]. - Industry News: Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, and some nickel mines have production changes such as restarts, suspensions, and production quota adjustments [31][32][34].