国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is at a high level technically, with intensified fluctuations [2] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate strongly due to high sentiment in the raw material sector [2] - Ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate strongly due to sector sentiment resonance [2] - Silicomanganese has high bullish sentiment, and attention should be paid to position risks [2] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate strongly as market sentiment ferments [2] - Steam coal has strong sentiment, and port transactions have moved up [2] - Log prices are strengthening marginally and rebounding [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Price Data: The closing price of I2605 was 819.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.43%. The price of various iron ore types increased to varying degrees, with the price of domestic iron ore rising more significantly. The basis and spreads also changed [4] - Macro and Industry News: The rise in iron ore prices is driven by cost and inventory structural contradictions, such as increased energy costs, low available port inventory, and restricted deliverable products. The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, and the 247 steel enterprises' daily hot metal output increased [4][5] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 1 [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price Data: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 increased, with trading volumes and positions changing. Spot prices in various regions also rose. The basis and spreads had corresponding changes [8] - Macro and Industry News: In early March 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased, and production decreased. In March 19th steel union weekly data, production increased, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. There were also data on real estate investment, industrial added value, and steel import and export [10] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 1 [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price Data: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures increased, and spot prices also changed. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads all had corresponding fluctuations [11] - Macro and Industry News: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Some silicon - iron furnaces were put into production, and the impact of cyclone on manganese ore was being evaluated. There was data on manganese ore import volume and inventory, and the procurement prices of some steel mills for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed [11][13] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 1 [13] Coke and Coking Coal - Price Data: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 increased, and spot prices of some coking coals and cokes remained unchanged. The basis and spreads changed [14] - Macro and Industry News: The CCI metallurgical coal index increased, and the coking coal online auction had no unsold lots, with prices rising. The first round of price increase for coking coal by mainstream coking enterprises was officially launched [14] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 0 [16] Steam Coal - Price Data: The prices of steam coal in production areas, ports, and overseas all had certain changes, and the long - term agreement prices also changed [19] - Macro and Industry News: On March 23rd, the sentiment in the northern port market was positive, and it was expected that port prices would continue to rise. From January to February 2026, the national raw coal output decreased slightly [20] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of steam coal (based on the spot price of steam coal in northern ports) is 1 [20] Logs - Price Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed. The prices of log spot markets in different regions and varieties had different degrees of change, and the spreads also changed [21] - Macro and Industry News: The increase in demand, the rapid increase in port departure, and the increase in sea freight led to a price rebound. The GDP growth target was adjusted in the 2026 government work report, and the Shanghai real estate policy was optimized [23] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 1 [24]