格林大华期货早盘提示：三油，两粕-20260324

Sector Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The international crude oil price remained strong due to the continued fermentation of the US-Iran conflict. The vegetable oil sector strengthened again, and the palm oil stopped falling and rebounded. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts generally increased. For the double - meal market, it showed a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [1][2][3] - In the short term, the soybean meal futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2950 - 3050 yuan/ton. The spot price of soybean meal is mostly in the range of 3200 - 3450 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of rapeseed meal in the spot market is light, and the price fluctuates with the market [3] - The price of palm oil is under short - term pressure but is still supported by the middle track of the Bollinger Bands in the medium term. New long positions can be re - entered. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil are highly volatile at high levels and mainly follow the trend of palm oil [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Market Review - On March 23, the US - Iran conflict continued to ferment. The international crude oil was still strong, and the vegetable oil sector strengthened again. The main contract Y2605 of soybean oil closed at 8740 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous day's closing price, with an increase of 18,176 lots in open interest. The sub - main contract Y2609 closed at 8666 yuan/ton, up 1.38%, with an increase of 17,960 lots in open interest. The main contract P2605 of palm oil closed at 9942 yuan/ton, up 2.31%, with a decrease of 1698 lots in open interest. The sub - main contract P2609 closed at 9880 yuan/ton, up 2.38%, with an increase of 18,428 lots in open interest. The main contract OI2605 of rapeseed oil closed at 9950 yuan/ton, up 0.75%, with an increase of 2276 lots in open interest. The sub - main contract OI2609 closed at 9831 yuan/ton, up 0.90%, with an increase of 2774 lots in open interest [1] Important Information - On Monday, the US NYMEX crude oil futures tumbled more than 10%. The May crude oil futures contract fell $10.10, and the settlement price was $88.13 per barrel [1][2][3] - A study on March 20 showed that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate [1] - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) called on the government to allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the US - Israel - Iran war [1] - The US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported on March 19 that the La Nina phenomenon is still continuing. It is expected to turn into an ENSO neutral state next month, and it is likely to remain in a neutral state from May to July 2026. The El Nino phenomenon may form from June to August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [1] - The Malaysian MPOB report showed that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons compared with the previous month; the production decreased by 18.55% to 1.28 million tons month - on - month, and the exports decreased by 22.48% to 1.13 million tons month - on - month [1] - The shipping survey agency SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 were 443,812 tons, an increase of 12.7% compared with 393,853 tons from February 1 - 15 [2] - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0348 million tons, a weekly decrease of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31% [2] Market Logic - In the external market, there was a TACO trade, and the international crude oil price plummeted by more than 12% during the session, but the subsequent decline narrowed. The US soybean oil remained volatile at a high level. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to open lower and move higher. The high - level operation of crude oil provides a basis for the implementation of the biodiesel policy. The Brazilian biodiesel producers have the ability to support a 20% blending ratio, which is beneficial to soybean crushing. In the domestic market, the vegetable oil is in the traditional off - season of consumption, but the seasonal shutdown of oil mills supports the soybean oil futures. The palm oil is boosted by the rise of international crude oil. The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil continues to rise in a narrow - range shock. Whether the US biodiesel policy is implemented this week will affect whether the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures price can break through the pressure of 10,000 yuan. Otherwise, it will maintain a wide - range shock [2] Trading Strategy - For long - term investors, the price decline caused by the TACO event is a new buying opportunity for vegetable oils. They should maintain a bullish view in the long - term and buy on dips. The pressure level of the Y2605 contract is 9300, and the support level is 8048; the pressure level of the Y2609 contract is 9700, and the support level is 8054; the pressure level of the P2605 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 8776; the pressure level of the P2609 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 8710; the pressure level of the OI2605 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 9212; the pressure level of the OI2609 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 9180 [2] Double - Meal Market Market Review - On March 23, the domestic double - meal continued the pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The main contract M2605 of soybean meal closed at 3007 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous day's closing price, with a decrease of 66,806 lots in open interest. The sub - main contract M2609 closed at 3050 yuan/ton, down 0.16%, with an increase of 45,750 lots in open interest. The main contract RM2605 of rapeseed meal closed at 2399 yuan/ton, down 0.99%, with an increase of 7656 lots in open interest. The sub - main contract RM2609 closed at 2455 yuan/ton, down 0.32%, with a decrease of 7387 lots in open interest [2] Important Information - The Brazilian 2025/26 soybean harvest rate has reached 65.79%, lagging behind 73.84% in the same period last year but close to the five - year average of 66.96% [3] - Chinese and US economic officials held a "very stable" meeting on agricultural trade issues in Paris on the 15th. China still promised to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [3] - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.4328 million tons, a decrease of 388,700 tons from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 672,600 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 7.88%. The contract volume was 4.5078 million tons, a decrease of 374,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.67%. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal was 24,000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%. The contract volume was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.89% [3] Market Logic - In the external market, the US announced to stop the military strike against Iran for 5 days, and the international soybeans oscillated and closed higher. The soybean meal was affected by the news that China Customs relaxed the regulations on weeds in Brazilian soybean cargoes and broke through the 3000 - yuan mark during the session. However, the Brazilian premium was firm, and the position transfer by institutions and the downstream price - fixing orders limited the decline. In the short term, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal is expected to operate in the range of 2950 - 3050 yuan/ton. In the domestic spot market, the one - price of oil mills decreased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton with the market, and the near - term basis remained stable. The traditional shutdown season is coming, and some low - inventory enterprises have replenishment needs. However, the Brazilian shipments are gradually recovering, and traders are cautious about the tight supply in April. The spot price of soybean meal is mostly in the range of 3200 - 3450 yuan/ton. For rapeseed meal, the aquaculture season has not arrived, the market trading volume is light, and the spot price fluctuates with the market, and the basis quotation is adjusted in a narrow range [3] Trading Strategy - Differentiated operations for the near - term and far - term contracts of double - meal: short the near - term contracts and long the far - term contracts. The pressure level of the M2605 contract is 3278, and the support level is 2710; the pressure level of the M2607 contract is 3000, and the support level is 2680; the pressure level of the M2509 contract is 3200, and the support level is 2833; the pressure level of the RM2605 contract is 2600, and the support level is 2220; the pressure level of the RM2607 contract is 2560, and the support level is 2200; the pressure level of the RM2609 contract is 2600, and the support level is 2274 [3]