华宝期货碳酸锂晨报-20260324

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate will experience wide - range oscillations in the range due to macro - level disturbances and supply - side constraints [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the LC main contract opened lower in the morning, then fluctuated within a narrow range, and was quickly pulled up in the afternoon due to supply - side news, closing at 149,040 yuan/ton, with a decline in trading volume and open interest, and the warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease. The average price of SMM battery - grade spot was 146,500 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Last week, the raw material price weakened along with the salt price. The SMM operating rate continued to rise to 55.14%, and the total output increased to 24,186 tons, strengthening the medium - term expectation of loose supply. [2] - Demand: SMM predicts that the operating rate of cathode materials in March will be at a high level, but the downstream's acceptance of high prices is low. Ternary lithium - iron phosphate continues the trend of increasing production and inventory. Energy - storage cells have strong production and sales and low inventory, which is a structural highlight. [2] - Inventory: Last week, the SMM four - location social inventory decreased to 40,700 tons (- 1,820 tons), the sample weekly inventory decreased to 98,900 tons, at a relatively low level, and the total inventory days decreased to 27.7 days, continuing the tight - balance pattern. Structurally, the downstream has accumulated inventory, and the willingness to replenish inventory has weakened. [2] Macro - policy Analysis - International: The 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand. The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, reduced market risk appetite, and put pressure on industrial metal prices. The Zimbabwe incident has raised concerns about supply disruptions, and the lithium carbonate price may rise. [3] - Domestic: The subsidy for trading in old cars for new ones and the battery export tax rebate (officially implemented on April 1) stimulate terminal consumption. The comprehensive utilization management method for new - energy vehicle power batteries optimizes the domestic supply structure in the long term and raises the cost support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and the Central Economic Work Conference support the long - term supply - demand balance. The 2026 government work report mentions zero - carbon parks/factories, which are expected to become the second growth curve for energy storage. [3]