申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260324

Report Summary of the Natural Rubber Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - On Monday, the natural rubber futures stopped falling. The synthetic rubber hit the daily limit during the session and then declined overnight. The natural rubber is in the seasonal low - production stage. The early opening of the domestic Yunnan production area increases the expected supply pressure, suppressing the rubber price. However, the domestic production area is still in the early stage of tapping with low output, and the Thai production area is also in the low - production season until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao continues to accumulate, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The demand side of all - steel tires has stable operation. The rubber price faces new supply pressure but is supported by the strong synthetic rubber. In the short term, the trend is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16145, 13055, and 17470 respectively, with price increases of 145, 190, and 1485, and increases of 0.91%, 1.48%, and 9.29% respectively. The trading volumes were 326382, 68099, and 493113 respectively, and the open interests were 116891, 58703, and 88892 respectively, with changes of +391, - 235, and +7771 respectively [2] - Price Spreads: The current values of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3090, - 1325, and - 4415 respectively, with changes of - 45, - 1340, and - 1295 respectively [2] Spot Market - Domestic Spot: The current prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 15900, 16000, and 16000 respectively, with increases of 0.63%, 0.63%, and 0.31% respectively. The prices of smoked sheets in Shandong and Shanghai were 19600 with 0% increase. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15065 and 16125 respectively, with changes of - 0.36% and 1.26% respectively [2] - Downstream Spot: The current prices of Thai smoked sheets, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex were 73.9, 58.92, and 75.5 respectively, with no change [2]