申万期货品种策略日报-生猪（LH）-20260324

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The live pig market is in a weak and volatile state. The national average ex-factory price of outer three - yuan live pigs is 9.69 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day, showing a pattern of "falling in the north and stable in the south". The market demand has limited growth, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening and frozen product warehousing is average. Pig prices lack upward momentum and are expected to continue bottom - oscillating in the short term with limited downward space [3] Group 3: Summary of Futures Market - Price and Change: The previous day's closing prices of live pig futures in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,595, 9,300, 9,980, 11,030, 12,300, and 12,725 respectively. The price changes were 50, - 430, - 240, - 250, - 275, and - 80, with percentage changes of 0.37%, - 4.42%, - 2.35%, - 2.22%, - 2.19%, and - 0.62% respectively [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes were 6,833, 10, 165,979, 40,414, 28,101, and 11,042 respectively. The open interests were 22,325, 27, 207,256, 76,085, 70,009, and 41,772 respectively, with changes of 376, - 15, 3,587, 1,510, 3,120, and 320 respectively [2] - Price Spreads: The current price spreads of "January - March", "March - May", "May - July", "July - September", "September - November", and "November - January" are 4,295, - 680, - 1,050, - 1,270, - 425, and - 870 respectively, compared with the previous values of 3,815, - 490, - 1,060, - 1,295, - 230, and - 740 [2] Group 4: Summary of Spot Market - Spot Prices: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 9.88, 9.76, 9.52, 10.03, 9.39, and 9.48 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 0.14, - 19.63, - 0.35, - 0.14, - 0.25, and - 0.18 compared with the previous values [2] Group 5: Summary of Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1,051 on the previous day, with no change compared with two days ago [2] Group 6: Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The output of key breeding enterprises increased by 5.13% compared with the previous day, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs was stable. The slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly by 0.07% [3] - Demand: The market demand has limited growth, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening and frozen product warehousing is average [3] - Profit Situation: Currently, the breeding side is generally in deep losses, with an average loss of 310.26 yuan per self - bred and self - raised pig [3]