大类资产观察：市场观察：7张图读懂黄金是否回调到位

Market Observation - The market is questioning the safe-haven property of gold as its price has not reacted positively to the recent US-Iran conflict, which has led to a significant rise in oil prices and the US dollar[1] - The current geopolitical situation has caused gold's safe-haven appeal to diminish, primarily due to the conflict being largely contained between the US, Israel, and Iran[11] Reasons for Limited Downside in Gold - The maximum drawdown for gold has reached 24.4%, nearing the critical threshold of 25%, suggesting limited further downside potential[17] - Historical data indicates that when the implied volatility (IV) of gold options exceeds 30%, the maximum drawdown typically ranges from 20% to 25%[17] - The market has priced in no interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for 2026, and any significant drop below $4,000 per ounce may require an increase in interest rate expectations[20] Short-Term Rebound Concerns - The foundation for a short-term rebound in gold is considered weak due to the ongoing oil supply shocks, which have led to oil prices nearing $120 per barrel, negatively impacting gold prices[22] - The US's measures to stabilize oil prices are deemed insufficient, as the release of 140 million barrels of Iranian oil would only cover global consumption for 1-2 days[25] - The probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to pre-conflict flow levels is now below 30%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures that could challenge gold's rebound sustainability[25] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to adopt a strategy of "slow rise, fast fall" in gold investments, focusing on buying during short-term dips to lower long-term holding costs[28] Risk Factors - Potential aggressive policies from the Trump administration could lead to stagflation or recession in the US, increasing economic risks[29] - Unexpected tariff expansions could slow global economic growth significantly, impacting market stability[29] - Rising geopolitical tensions may lead to increased asset price volatility, complicating investment strategies[29]