集运指数（欧线）：地缘扰动反复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral stance [17]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday fluctuations of the EC market are significantly influenced by geopolitical sentiments. In terms of fundamentals, the short - term valuation center of the 2604 contract depends on the quotes of other shipping companies in early April. In a neutral scenario, the market freight rate center in early April will rise to the range of $2700 - 2800/FEU, equivalent to an SCFIS index of approximately 1950 - 2050 points; in a pessimistic scenario, the rate hike fails, and the freight rate center drops back to $2500 - 2600/FEU in the second half of March, equivalent to an SCFIS index of about 1800 - 1900 points. The 2604 contract has long - allocation value around 1800 points and below, and short - term long - buying opportunities should be noted. For far - month contracts, a certain premium or discount is given according to seasonality, and overall, one should mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [13][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Data: The EC2604 contract closed at 1957.4 points, with a daily increase of 3.00%; the EC2606 contract closed at 2692.9 points, with a daily increase of 14.40%; the EC2608 contract closed at 2564.0 points, with a daily increase of 9.74%; the EC2610 contract closed at 1648.0 points, with a daily increase of 6.72% [1]. - Freight Index: On March 23, 2026, the SCFIS European route index was 1693.26 points, with a weekly increase of 8.8%; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1024.11 points, with a weekly decrease of 7.7%. The SCFI European route index had a bi - weekly increase of 1.1%, and the SCFI US - West route index had a bi - weekly decrease of 8.7% [1]. - Spot Freight Rates: For European - bound shipments from Shanghai, different carriers' $/40'GP rates range from 2035 to 3360, and $/20'GP rates range from 1285 to 2230 [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 99.12, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.91 [1]. 3.2 Supply Side - In the past week, the average weekly capacity in April was revised down from 32.5 to 31.1 million TEU/week, with the capacity reduction mainly from the OA Alliance. The capacity in April decreased by 0.9% year - on - year and increased by 5.8% month - on - month. The capacity in May was revised down from 33.5 to 33.1 million TEU/week, and there were 4 pending voyages not included in the statistics. The capacity in May increased by 10.4% year - on - year and 7.8% month - on - month, and the static effective capacity in May is currently at a historical high [13]. 3.3 Demand Side - In the fourth week of March, the overall booking progress in the market was better than that in the third week. Maersk raised the price by $400 to $2700/FEU in the first week of April, and as of Thursday this week, the booking progress was average. The PA Alliance showed signs of improved loading at the end of the month. The market as a whole showed the characteristics of deteriorated loading for high - price ships and improved loading for low - price ships, while the OA Alliance continued to perform steadily. In the medium - to - long - term, if oil prices soar and remain high, potential downside risks may stem from macro - level negative feedback, which could then be transmitted to international trade [14]. 3.4 Freight Rates - Maersk: The opening rate in the 13th week was 2200/230 (40GP/40HQ). It was raised by $400 to 2600/2700 (40GP/40HQ) in the 14th week. As of Thursday this week, the SPOT booking volume was only 1100FFE, far from the target of 3900FFE [14]. - OA Alliance: The central rate in the 12th and 13th weeks was around $2900/FEU. Among them, Evergreen, COSCO, and OOCL were in the range of $2700 - 2800/FEU, and CMA's offline rate was 3168 and online rate was 3293 dollars/FEU [14]. - PA Alliance: In the 12th week, the FAK was reported at $2400/FEU, and the actual offline transactions were mostly at $2200/FEU per ship. In the 13th week, YML and HMM's offline rates remained at $2200/FEU, ONE's FAK was reported at $2520/FEU, and different SPOT rates could be applied for different container volumes [15]. - MSC: From April 1st to April 5th, the rate basically remained at $2840/FEU [15].