光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 3 月 24 日）-20260324

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short - term with potential for medium - to long - term growth. ICE US cotton dropped 0.12% to 67.23 cents/pound on Monday, while Zhengzhou cotton's main contract rose 0.92% to 15,280 yuan/ton, with its position decreasing by 14,650 lots to 577,800 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B increased by 160 yuan/ton to 16,450 yuan/ton. International factors like Middle - East disturbances, TACO trading, a weaker US dollar index, lower oil prices, and a rebound in precious metals affect the market. In the domestic market, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased with reduced positions. Key concerns are new cotton planting and the Middle - East situation [1] - The sugar market is also expected to be volatile. As of March 23, 2026, 25 sugar mills in Guangxi had completed the 2025/26 crushing season, 46 fewer than the previous year. Spot prices of sugar increased across regions. The net short position of funds in raw sugar decreased, causing the price to rise initially and then adjust slightly with oil. International geopolitical conflicts and domestic supply - demand factors result in no clear price trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton fell 0.12% to 67.23 cents/pound, Zhengzhou cotton's main contract rose 0.92% to 15,280 yuan/ton, and the main contract position decreased by 14,650 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B rose 160 yuan/ton. International factors include Middle - East disturbances, a weaker US dollar index, lower oil prices, and a precious - metal rebound. In the domestic market, the main contract increased with reduced positions. Key concerns are new cotton planting and the Middle - East situation [1] - Sugar: As of March 23, 2026, 25 sugar mills in Guangxi completed the 2025/26 crushing season, 46 fewer than before. Spot prices increased in Guangxi, Yunnan, and among processing sugar factories. The net short position of funds in raw sugar decreased, causing the price to rise initially and then adjust with oil. International geopolitical conflicts and domestic supply - demand factors lead to no clear price trend [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 5 - 9 spread was - 120 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was 1312 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan/ton. The spot price in Xinjiang was 16,440 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the national average was 16,592 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton [2] - Sugar: The 5 - 9 spread was - 29 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main contract basis was 27 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton. The spot price in Nanning was 5470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou was 5480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] 3. Market Information - On March 23, 2026, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 12,384, down 16 from the previous day, with 349 valid forecasts [3] - On March 23, 2026, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 16,440 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 16,602 yuan/ton in Henan, 16,618 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 16,733 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [3] - On March 23, 2026, the comprehensive load of yarn was 58.3, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 16.4, up 0.1; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 60.7, up 0.1; and the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 23.8, down 0.2 [3] - On March 23, 2026, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou was 5470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [3] - On March 23, 2026, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 16,342, unchanged from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4] 4. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts of cotton and sugar, such as the closing price, basis, spread, and warehouse receipts of the main contracts, as well as the China Cotton Price Index [6][9][11][14][17]