固定收益市场周观察：关注地方债活跃度提升

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Since March, the secondary market trading of local government bonds has recovered, and the spread with treasury bonds has significantly compressed compared to the beginning of the month. The market's exploration efforts are expected to further increase. Attention can be paid to provinces and cities with high or significantly increasing secondary trading activity [6][9]. - Last week, there was a divergence between short - and long - term interest rates in the bond market. Short - term interest rates continued to decline, while long - term interest rates rose mainly due to the inflation expectations brought by high oil prices and better - than - expected economic data [6][33]. - The production side shows a divergence in operating rates, the demand side has mixed performance, and prices show different trends in different sectors [6][43][45]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Special Topic: Focus on the Increase in Local Government Bond Activity - Since March, the secondary trading of local government bonds has warmed up. As of March 22, the secondary turnover rate was 2.9%, up from 2.4% in February. With the stable issuance of local government bonds, a loose funding environment, and the upcoming season of increasing non - bank scale in the second and third quarters, the secondary trading of local government bonds is expected to heat up further. Provinces and cities such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Hunan, and Fujian have seen significant increases in turnover rates, reaching 7.9%, 6.4%, 6.1%, 5.8%, and 4.5% respectively since March [6][9]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: Interest - Bearing Bond Supply Remains High Compared to the Same Period 2.1 This Week's Announced Data Concentrates Overseas - The US will announce the March Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, etc., and the Eurozone will announce the March Manufacturing PMI and other data [12][13]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance is Expected to be Around 673.6 Billion - Treasury bonds: One 7 - year coupon - bearing general treasury bond with a scale of 175 billion and one 91 - day discount treasury bond are expected to be issued, with a total issuance scale of about 595 billion. - Local government bonds: 75 local government bonds are planned to be issued, with a total issuance scale of 308.6 billion, including new general bonds, new special bonds, refinancing general bonds, and refinancing special bonds. - Policy - financial bonds: The issuance scale is expected to be around 150 billion [13]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Divergence of Short - and Long - Term Yields Continues 3.1 Net Reverse Repurchase Injection Last Week was 6.58 Billion - Last week, the net injection through open - market operations was 24.58 billion. The reverse repurchase injection scale first increased slightly and then fell to a relatively low level. The total injection was 242.3 billion, with 176.5 billion due, resulting in a net injection of 6.58 billion. Coupled with the roll - over of treasury time deposits, the net injection through open - market operations was 24.58 billion. Tax - period funds were stable, and funding rates gradually declined. The repurchase trading volume first decreased and then recovered, with the weekly average at around 84 trillion. The overnight proportion remained at around 91%. The DR001 remained at 1.32%, and the DR007 fell from 1.46% to 1.42% [16][17]. - The net financing of certificates of deposit remained at a low level, and both primary and secondary prices declined. From March 16 to 22, the issuance scale was 759.8 billion (down 86.1 billion from the previous week), the maturity scale was 1162.9 billion (up 154.7 billion from the previous week), and the net financing was - 403.1 billion (down 240.8 billion from the previous week). The long - term proportion decreased to 55%, and secondary yields mostly declined [21]. 3.2 Short - Term Yields Declined while Long - Term Yields Rose - Last week, there was a divergence between short - and long - term interest rates. Short - term interest rates continued to decline, while long - term interest rates rose mainly due to inflation expectations brought by high oil prices and better - than - expected economic data. The 10 - year treasury bond and CDB active bonds changed by 1.6bp and - 0.8bp respectively to 1.83% and 1.93%. The 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year ChinaBond treasury bond yields changed by - 2bp, - 2.5bp, 0.1bp, 0bp, and 1.6bp respectively to 1.26%, 1.35%, 1.56%, 1.7%, and 1.83%. The short - and long - term interest - bearing bonds diverged, with the 5 - year Exim Bank and Agricultural Development Bank bonds declining the most by 3.4bp, and the 10 - year treasury bond rising the most by 1.6bp [6][33][35]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise - Production side: There is a divergence in operating rates. The blast furnace operating rate increased from 78.3% to 79.8%, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increased from 77.7% to 78.3%. The PTA operating rate decreased from 80.1% to 76.3%, and the asphalt operating rate decreased from 23% to 21.8%. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel production in early March was still large, at - 8.5% [43]. - Demand side: Since March, the year - on - year growth of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales has turned negative. In the week of March 15, the year - on - year change in manufacturers' wholesale was - 10%, and the year - on - year change in manufacturers' retail was - 19%. In the week of March 15, the land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased to 12.57 million square meters, with the year - on - year growth rate turning positive. The commercial housing sales area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased to around 1.7 million square meters, with the year - on - year decline narrowing to - 7.6%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 0.2% and 4.5% respectively [45]. - Price side: Brent oil prices continued to rise, copper and aluminum prices declined, and coal prices were divergent. The power coal active contract futures settlement price remained the same as last week, while the coking coal active contract futures settlement price changed by - 1.4%. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index was basically flat, the cement index changed by 1.6%, and the glass index changed by - 5.3%. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory was basically flat at 6.53 million tons, with the futures price changing by - 0.5%. In the downstream consumer sector, vegetable, fruit, and pork prices changed by - 1.6%, - 2%, and - 2.4% respectively [45].