房地产行业报告（2026.3.16-2026.3.22）：交易修复强于价格修复，边际改善信号增多

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The market in March has shown increased activity compared to January and February, indicating that the "small spring" phenomenon is not a false narrative, particularly with strong volume in second-hand housing in Shanghai [3] - The structural characteristics of the current recovery are distinct: second-hand housing is outperforming new housing, Shanghai is outperforming other first-tier cities, low total price properties are outperforming high total price properties, core areas are outperforming peripheral areas, and transaction recovery is stronger than price recovery [3] - The industry index has not yet escaped downward pressure, with low land acquisition premium rates and willingness indicating a lack of confidence in the sustainability of sales recovery and profit realization [3] - Signs of marginal improvement in the industry fundamentals are increasing, suggesting that the bottom is gradually approaching [3] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 186.28 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 1,562.67 million square meters, down 17.7% year-on-year [4] - The average transaction area over the past four weeks in 30 major cities was 146.34 million square meters, down 21.4% year-on-year but up 43.6% month-on-month [4] - First-tier cities saw an average transaction area of 38.85 million square meters, down 30.2% year-on-year, but up 46.2% month-on-month [4] Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - Last week, the second-hand housing transaction area in 20 cities was 266.5 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 2,282.91 million square meters, down 6.7% year-on-year [5] - The average transaction area over the past four weeks in these cities was 209.16 million square meters, down 21.6% year-on-year but up 46.6% month-on-month [5] Land Market Transactions - Last week, 100 major cities saw 21 new residential land supplies and 27 residential land transactions, with an average transaction price of 9,567 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 8.26% [24] - The average transaction price for commercial land was 1,431.25 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 0.25% [24] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 4.21%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 2.19%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 2.02 percentage points [27] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng property services and management index fell by 1.39%, while the Hang Seng composite index fell by 1.69%, with the property services and management index outperforming the composite index by 0.3 percentage points [27]