流动性和机构行为周度观察：资金面平稳，存单利率持续下行-20260324

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - From March 16 - 20, 2026, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a net injection of 658 billion yuan, and the treasury cash fixed - term deposit had an injection of 180 billion yuan. During March 16 - 22, 2026, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, the yield to maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) declined, the net financing of inter - bank CDs was negative, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From March 23 - 29, 2026, the expected net payment scale of government bonds is 566.4 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of inter - bank CDs is about 698.2 billion yuan. On March 20, 2026, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds decreased by 0.23 years and 0.13 years respectively on a weekly basis [2]. Summary by Directory Fundamentals - During the tax - payment period, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a small net injection. From March 16 - 20, 2026, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had an injection of 242.3 billion yuan and a withdrawal of 176.5 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 65.8 billion yuan; the treasury cash fixed - term deposit had an injection of 180 billion yuan. The maturity scale of the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) in March is 450 billion yuan [6]. - The average fund interest rates decreased slightly on a weekly basis. From March 16 - 20, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.32% and 1.40% respectively, down 1.2 basis points and 0.2 basis points compared with March 9 - 13; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.43% and 1.49% respectively, down 2.3 basis points and 1.4 basis points compared with March 9 - 13 [6]. - The net financing scale of government bonds increased. From March 16 - 22, 2026, the net financing of government bonds was about 306.3 billion yuan, an increase of about 468.5 billion yuan compared with March 9 - 15, 2026. Among them, the net financing of treasury bonds was about 140.9 billion yuan, and the net financing of local government bonds was about 165.4 billion yuan. From March 23 - 29, 2026, the expected net financing of government bonds is about 566.4 billion yuan, including about 414.8 billion yuan of net financing of treasury bonds and about 151.6 billion yuan of net financing of local government bonds [7]. - The pressure on the cross - quarter fund situation is expected to be limited, but the frictional disturbances on the fund situation increased on a weekly basis. In March, with the net withdrawal of the central bank's outright reverse repurchase and the relatively small scale of 7 - day reverse repurchase injection, the fund interest rates still remained relatively stable, which may reflect that the liquidity of the current banking system is still relatively abundant. Also, from March 18, the 14 - day funds entered the cross - quarter range, but from the trend of the R014 fund interest rate, it only increased marginally by 6BP to 1.59% on March 18 and then declined steadily, which may also indicate that the pressure on the cross - quarter fund situation in March is limited. However, at the end of the quarter, attention should be paid to the possible phased increase in the volatility of fund interest rates. Specifically, first, the fund lending behavior of banks at the end of the quarter may be affected by the end - of - quarter assessment; second, the payment scale of government bonds from March 23 - 29 increased marginally, increasing the frictions on the fund situation; third, attention should be paid to the emotional disturbances on the fund situation caused by the MLF operation scale in March [8]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The yield to maturity of inter - bank CDs continued to decline. As of March 20, 2026, the yield to maturity of 1M and 3M inter - bank CDs were 1.4550% and 1.4650% respectively, down 4.5 basis points and 3.5 basis points compared with March 13, 2026; the yield to maturity of 1Y inter - bank CDs was 1.5150%, down 1.8 basis points compared with March 13, 2026 [9]. - The net financing of inter - bank CDs was negative. From March 16 - 22, 2026, the net financing of inter - bank CDs was about - 403.1 billion yuan. The expected maturity repayment amount of inter - bank CDs from March 23 - 29, 2026 is 698.2 billion yuan, and the maturity repayment amount of the previous week was 1162.9 billion yuan, with the pressure of maturity renewal decreasing [9]. Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From March 16 - 20, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.26%, and the average value calculated from March 9 - 13, 2026 was 107.42%. Among them, the calculated leverage ratios of the inter - bank bond market on March 20 and March 13, 2026 were about 107.30% and 107.40% respectively [10]. - Based on the calculation results, the durations of medium - long - term interest - rate pure bond funds and short - term interest - rate pure bond funds both decreased marginally. On March 20, 2026, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 4.30 years, down 0.23 years on a weekly basis, at the 73.8% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 1.94 years, down 0.13 years on a weekly basis, at the 70.2% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10].