2026年3月24日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Precious metals have rebounded significantly. Trump unilaterally signaled negotiations, causing crude oil prices to drop sharply, and risk appetite to recover, driving the rebound of precious metals. The core drivers of the precious metals adjustment are the downward revision of interest rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the medium to long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to move up due to geopolitical risks and concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process will continue to advance. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector's trend with relatively larger fluctuations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Gold Futures: - For沪金2606, yesterday's closing price was 942.80, down 99.22 (-9.52%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 370,312, and the open interest was 156,399. The spot premium was -21.81 [2]. - For沪金2604, yesterday's closing price was 940.00, down 99.22 (-9.55%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 386,422, and the open interest was 62,764. The spot premium was -19.01 [2]. - Silver Futures: - For沪银2606, yesterday's closing price was 15,411, down 2,214 (-12.56%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,259,324, and the open interest was 222,721. The spot premium was -142 [2]. - For沪银2604, yesterday's closing price was 15,498, down 2,216 (-12.51%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 136,668, and the open interest was 55,828. The spot premium was -229 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Gold: Shanghai Gold T+D's closing price was 920.99, down 119.61 (-11.49%) from the previous day; London gold was at 4407.35 dollars per troy ounce, down 84.32 (-1.88%) [2]. - Silver: Shanghai Silver T+D's closing price was 15,269, down 2,511 (-14.12%) from the previous day; London silver was at 69.11 dollars per troy ounce, up 1.21 (1.79%) [2]. 3.3 Inventory - Gold: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 106,746 kg (down 99 kg), and the COMEX inventory was 32,032,542 troy ounces (down 21,733 troy ounces) [2]. - Silver: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 364,549 kg (up 2,054 kg), and the COMEX inventory was 332,090,493 troy ounces (down 604,761 troy ounces) [2]. 3.4 Related Derivatives and Other Data - SPDR Gold ETF: The current holding was 1,053 tons, down 4 tons [2]. - SLV Silver ETF: The current holding was 15,514 tons, up 265 tons [2]. - CFTC Speculators' Net Positions: For gold, it was 159,869, down 3,263; for silver, it was 21,881, down 2,697 [2]. - Other Related Indexes: The US dollar index was 99.12 (down 0.40), the S&P 500 index was 6,581.00 (up 74.52), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.34% (down 0.05%), Brent crude oil was at 96.07 (down 8.34), and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9062 (up 0.0245) [2]. 3.5 Macro - information - Iran Situation: There are differences in statements between the US and Iran regarding negotiations. Trump said there were productive talks and a possible agreement in 5 days, but Iran denied having negotiations. Israel will continue to attack Iran and Lebanon, and the US military is considering sending troops to Iran [3]. - Fed: Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 92.8% [3].