2026年03月24日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term volatility has increased due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes [4]. - As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have fallen 21.4% and 19.7% respectively from their January highs, and have also significantly retreated from their February 24 repair highs, with the previous rebound space mostly given back [4]. - The core disturbance is Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh's policy stance is dovish but not as expected. After the nomination, the US dollar strengthened in the short - term, dragging down platinum and palladium. The nomination process and subsequent policy independence are still uncertain, and short - term monetary policy expectation games continue [4]. - Macroscopically, the judicial investigation of Powell shakes the US dollar's credit, the global central bank gold - buying wave continues, and the reserve value of platinum and palladium is prominent under de - dollarization. Geopolitical risks in Greenland provide periodic support, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remains unchanged, with long - term loose environment still providing support [4]. - In the industrial sector, the supply - demand gap for platinum is clear, and the surge in hydrogen energy demand and South African production capacity constraints provide strong support. Palladium supply is rigid, and hybrid demand and strict emission policies support demand, with the spot market in tight balance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Platinum futures: The prices of pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610 are 457.75, 453.80, and 452.65 respectively, with price drops of - 58.80, - 60.75, and - 59.50, and price decline rates of - 11.38%, - 11.81%, and - 11.62% respectively. The持仓 volume is 13077 for all, and the trading volumes are 18262, 571, and 221 respectively [1]. - Palladium futures: The prices of pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610 are 327.85, 333.00, and 332.20 respectively, with price drops of - 46.50, - 40.95, and - 38.05, and price decline rates of - 12.42%, - 10.95%, and - 10.28% respectively. The持仓 volume is 4478 for all, and the trading volumes are 6786, 161, and 88 respectively [1]. Spot Market - Platinum: The Shanghai platinum price is 459.83 yuan/gram, with a price drop of - 49.05 and a decline rate of - 0.096%. The London platinum price is 1893.00 US dollars/ounce, with a price drop of - 85.00 and a decline rate of - 0.043%. The prices of Zhou Dafu platinum and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 745.00 yuan/gram and 850.00 yuan/gram respectively, with price drops of - 44.00 and 0.00, and decline rates of - 0.056% and 0.000% respectively [1]. - Palladium: The Chinese palladium price is 350.00 yuan/gram, with a price drop of - 20.00 and a decline rate of - 0.054%. The Russian palladium price is 3774.84 rubles/gram, with a price drop of - 108.63 and a decline rate of - 0.028% [1]. Inventory - Platinum: The NYMEX inventory is 579,273.64 ounces, with no change. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts are 308,556.37 ounces, a decrease of 5011.6 ounces. The Shanghai Gold Exchange trading volume is 438.00 kilograms, an increase of 294.00 kilograms, and the trading amount is 21,006.18 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 13715.2 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - Palladium: The NYMEX inventory is 248,373.69 ounces, an increase of 3196.9 ounces. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts are 211,887.35 ounces, an increase of 3196.9 ounces [1]. Related Derivatives and Indexes - Related indexes: The US dollar index is 99.16, a decrease of - 0.35; the S&P 500 index is 6,581.00, an increase of 74.52; the US bond yield is 4.34, a decrease of - 0.05; the Nasdaq index is 21,946.76, an increase of 299.15; the Dow Jones index is 46,208.47, an increase of 631.00; the US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 6.90, an increase of 0.01 [1]. - Related derivatives: The prices of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 940.00, 942.80, and 945.50 respectively, with decreases of - 99.22, - 99.22, and - 99.50. The prices of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 15498.00, 15411.00, and 15384.00 respectively, with decreases of - 2216, - 2214, and - 2217 [1]. Macroeconomic News - The Fed keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposes the decision and advocates a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The economic outlook is highly uncertain, and the dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 - 2027, indicating a more conservative rate - cut path [2]. - The US and Israel's military strikes on Iran have blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2]. - The People's Bank of China requires promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening supervision, and improving service quality [3].