有色商品日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: After a sharp fall, copper prices are expected to enter a bottom - seeking phase with support below but lack of upward drivers. The strategy is to shift from being cautiously bearish to range - bound operations and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on the performance in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. The main factors affecting copper prices are the US - Iran conflict and inventory changes. [1] - Aluminum: Overseas raw material cost support is weakening, and after the release of domestic production increase and the arrival of a large amount of imported alumina, the inventory is under pressure. If there is no unexpected geopolitical disturbance, the short - term aluminum price will be mainly in a weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the approaching time of the de - stocking inflection point. [2] - Nickel: Due to the tight supply of nickel ore and rising freight, the price of nickel ore is rising. The operation can refer to short - term long opportunities based on the cost line, but short - term attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics and market sentiment. The expected supplementary quota in July and the large inventory pressure of primary nickel will also put pressure on nickel prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, and SHFE copper opened higher and fluctuated strongly. The domestic refined copper import window remained open. - Market sentiment was affected by the US - Iran conflict. Trump's attitude change reversed the market decline. - LME inventory increased by 5,125 tons to 347,475 tons; Comex inventory decreased by 1,121 tons to 532,947 tons; SHFE copper warrants decreased by 13,737 tons to 274,115 tons; BC copper warrants decreased by 1,050 tons to 14,086 tons. - After the copper price decline, downstream replenishment demand increased, and social inventory decreased rapidly. [1] Aluminum - Overnight alumina fluctuated weakly, AO2605 closed at 3,021 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%. SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, AL2605 closed at 23,750 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.57%. - The spot price of alumina rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The processing fees of some aluminum products changed. - Overseas raw material cost support weakened, and the inventory was under pressure. The market's core contradiction shifted, and the short - term aluminum price was expected to adjust weakly. [1][2] Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 1.87% to $17,200/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.71% to 134,990 yuan/ton. - LME inventory decreased by 720 tons to 282,792 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 942 tons to 57,632 tons. - The price of nickel ore continued to rise due to tight supply and rising freight. The demand side showed some changes, and the operation could refer to short - term long opportunities based on cost. [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - copper, waste copper, and downstream products decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE warrants decreased by 13,737 tons. The social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons. [4] - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. [4] - Aluminum: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE warrants decreased by 198 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, and that of alumina increased by 40,000 tons. [5] - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased slightly. The inventory of LME decreased, and SHFE warrants increased by 942 tons. The social inventory of nickel increased by 959 tons. [5] - Zinc: The main settlement price decreased slightly. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE increased by 793 tons. The social inventory decreased by 9,500 tons. [7] - Tin: The main settlement price decreased by 1.5%. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE decreased by 2,472 tons. [7] 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to analyze the spot premium, SHFE near - far month spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profit of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2026. [8][9][16][23][29][35][41]