碳酸锂日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose 1.02% to 149,040 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate fell 2,500 yuan/ton to 146,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell 2,500 yuan/ton to 143,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 3,500 yuan/ton to 138,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 781 tons to 33,537 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production data increased by 760 tons to 24,186 tons; the estimated lithium carbonate production in March increased by 28% to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the estimated output of ternary materials in March increased by 19% to 84,360 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 24% to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 86 tons to 98,873 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 458 tons to 46,105 tons, other links decreasing by 860 tons to 36,160 tons, and upstream inventory increasing by 316 tons to 16,608 tons [3]. - The lagging demand data is difficult to strongly boost the market. The weekly de - stocking speed has significantly slowed down, and the downstream inventory level has relatively and significantly rebounded. Therefore, if the price rises sharply in the short term, it may lead to a weakening of downstream purchasing enthusiasm. However, recently, due to geopolitical issues, the long - term energy substitution logic has strengthened, and the stock market has reacted more strongly. Concerns about overseas resource supply have resurfaced. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on whether there will be a gap in lithium ore supply. In the medium - to - long term, the price center will still move upwards, so it is still advisable to consider bottom - fishing [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 149,040 yuan/ton, up 5,180 yuan from March 20; the closing price of the continuous contract was 147,860 yuan/ton, up 2,860 yuan from March 20 [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,028 US dollars/ton, down 29 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,020 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 11,750 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 12,750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 146,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 143,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 138,500 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 145,000 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 127,050 yuan/ton, down 3,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 18.1 US dollars/kg, down 0.1 US dollars [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price was 108,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 8,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 13,536 yuan/ton, up 3,070 yuan [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials remained unchanged, while the prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased. For example, the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 189,250 yuan/ton, down 1,550 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 52,680 yuan/ton, down 610 yuan [5]. - Cells and Batteries: The prices of most cells and batteries remained unchanged, with only a slight increase in the price of 523 square ternary cells (0.002 yuan/Wh) and square lithium iron phosphate cells (0.004 yuan/Wh) [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of battery - grade metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) Asia - domestic, as well as the basis from 2024 to 2026 [17][19][23]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese dioxide, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from July 2025 to March 2026 [38][40]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, 外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 to 2026 [43]. 3.3 Team Members Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of the non - ferrous research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience and has won many awards [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant analyst awards [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She has won relevant analyst awards [48]. 3.4 Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. - Company phone: 021 - 80212222. - Fax: 021 - 80212200. - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979. - Zip code: 200127 [51].