Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 0.9% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with a total revenue of $963 million, marking a positive turnaround [3][9]. - The gross margin improved to 60.3%, benefiting from increased contributions from Tumi and direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, as well as effective tariff hedging measures [9]. - The EBITDA margin reached 20.3%, indicating a sequential improvement of 4 percentage points, reflecting stable profitability [9]. - The company expects Q1 2026 sales to remain flat year-on-year due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, but anticipates potential positive growth in subsequent quarters [9]. Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2026-2028 are $3.559 billion, $3.725 billion, and $3.901 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 1.7%, 4.7%, and 4.7% [5][11]. - The net profit for 2026 is estimated at $294 million, with a growth of 1.8% year-on-year, and projected to increase to $321 million and $347 million in 2027 and 2028, respectively [5][11]. - The company maintains a PE ratio of 9.56 for 2026, with a target price of HKD 23.48 based on a 15x PE multiple [9][11]. Regional Performance - In Q4 2025, the Asia region showed a revenue increase of 5.1% year-on-year, with significant improvements in China and South Korea, while North America experienced a decline of 2.8% primarily due to a drop in Mexico's revenue [9][11]. - TUMI brand achieved stable growth despite high base effects, with revenue growth of 3.6% year-on-year, supported by new product development and enhanced marketing efforts [9][11].
新秀丽：25Q4亚太和北美持续改善，26Q1国际复杂局势影响仍需观察-20260324