PX供应继续下降，长丝产销局部好转

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tension in the Iran situation has led to rising crude oil prices, with the focus of the market remaining on the situation in Iran. The PXN of PX has been significantly compressed, and the supply disruption in the Middle East has continuously pushed up the price of naphtha. However, the poor downstream polyester demand has limited the upward momentum of PX. The influence of the Iran situation is gradually expanding, and the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz remains low. Under the concern of supply disruption, the PX spot shows a Back structure, and the floating price is relatively strong. Recently, affected by the concern about the stability of raw material supply, the PX load has decreased, and the de - stocking amplitude has increased. If the raw material supply continues to be affected, the impact on refineries in other countries will also continue to expand [1]. - For PTA, the spot basis is -73 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +1 yuan/ton), the spot processing fee is 231 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +37 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 318 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +20 yuan/ton). The weaving and polyester loads are recovering, and the PTA load has decreased but the impact is smaller than that of PX. It continued to accumulate inventory in March, but the PTA trend is relatively strong under cost support, and the processing fee is compressed. Currently, the supply of goods is relatively abundant, and the spot basis is running weakly. The market is debating which has a greater impact, supply reduction or demand suppression. In the medium and long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, and the long - term expectation is still good [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 87.6% (with a month - on - month increase of 0.9%). The polyester and weaving loads are stable, but the downstream prices are slow to follow the increase, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is not high. There are more voices of production reduction. Recently, the sales of filament have been continuously sluggish, and the inventory of filament and staple fiber has accumulated rapidly. The polyester load is lower than that of the same period last year. If the downstream continues not to replenish inventory, the load may decrease [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is -267 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of -310 yuan/ton). The downstream has a strong wait - and - see attitude, with moderate replenishment at periodic lows and less high - level transactions. The short - fiber factory's equipment has been started, and the load has increased. Due to the weak sales, the factory inventory has increased, and the processing difference fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 992 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of -246 yuan/ton). Affected by the situation in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, the upstream raw materials have experienced production cuts and load reductions, and the prices of polyester raw materials have risen significantly. The prices of polyester bottle chip factories mostly follow the increase. The operating load of polyester bottle chip equipment has increased slightly and remained stable, and the overall supply has increased slightly. However, mainstream factories have cut some contract volumes, and the circulating supply of goods is still tight. The inventory of bottle chip factories remains at a low level, and the processing fee has retreated but is still relatively high [3]. - The strategy suggests cautious bottom - fishing long - hedging for PX/PTA/PF/PR. Before seeing actual troop withdrawals or negotiations, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still difficult to be smooth, and cost support and supply concerns still exist, but there is a negative feedback expectation on the demand side. Currently, the trading difficulty is relatively large, and it is not advisable to chase up or kill down. The supply affects the 5 - 9 positive spread of PX, and attention should be paid to the traffic situation in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis, with data sources including CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [8][9][14] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit, with data sources such as CCF, Tonghuashun, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit, with data sources from Longzhong, Tonghuashun, CCF, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [22][24] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia, with data sources from CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][30] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory, with data sources from Zhuochuang Information, Tonghuashun, Longzhong, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [35][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover the sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines, with data sources from CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][55] PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days, with data sources from CCF, Tonghuashun, Longzhong, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [67][74][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread, with data sources from CCF, Tonghuashun, Longzhong, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [86][93]