中东局势仍动荡，聚烯烃延续走高

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, especially the tense situation in Iran, continues to drive up the prices of energy and chemical products. The market anticipates that the conflict in Iran will escalate and may spread to neighboring countries, leading to concerns about energy supply disruptions [3]. - For PE, upstream maintenance plans are increasing, and the expected decline in the operating rate, combined with weak import resource arrivals, is tightening the market supply. Although the overall downstream operating rate has rebounded, the high - price acceptance of downstream is low, resulting in a significant decline in the L basis. However, the supply side still provides strong support, and the PE market trend remains strong [3]. - For PP, the intensification of the Iran conflict has increased concerns about raw material supply. The supply support for PP remains strong as the maintenance losses of upstream enterprises continue to rise. The high price of PP has squeezed downstream profits, leading to cautious procurement by downstream. However, the opening of the PP export window has boosted export demand. In the short term, the reduction in PP supply and the strong support from the cost side of propane will continue to drive prices up as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - period Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 9,523 yuan/ton (+705), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 9,793 yuan/ton (+774). The LL North China spot price is 8,800 yuan/ton (+500), the LL East China spot price is 9,100 yuan/ton (+650), and the PP East China spot price is 9,300 yuan/ton (+550). The LL North China basis is - 723 yuan/ton (-205), the LL East China basis is - 423 yuan/ton (-55), and the PP East China basis is - 493 yuan/ton (-224) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 80.1% (-2.3%), and the PP operating rate is 70.5% (+0.4%). The PE oil - based production profit is - 1,617.9 yuan/ton (-412.0), the PP oil - based production profit is - 1,557.9 yuan/ton (-412.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 3,142.4 yuan/ton (-1,202.8) [1]. 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference No specific data or analysis provided in the given content. 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is - 962.5 yuan/ton (-150.0), the PP import profit is - 1,409.9 yuan/ton (-200.0), and the PP export profit is 179.1 US dollars/ton (+25.7) [1]. 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 35.4% (+8.6%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 45.6% (+2.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 40.3% (-0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.0% (+0.6%) [2]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory No specific data or analysis provided in the given content. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. - Inter - period: No strategy provided. - Cross - variety: Cautiously go short on the spread between LL05 and PP05 [5].