中东危机若稳定后，锌价上涨弹性可期

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - After the Middle East crisis stabilizes, the upward elasticity of zinc prices is still expected, and the long - term outlook for both the mine supply and downstream consumption remains optimistic [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$24.61 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 240 yuan/ton to 22,670 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 22,740 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 240 yuan/ton to 22,660 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -75 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 23, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,000 yuan/ton and closed at 22,800 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 120,371 lots, and the open interest was 103,488 lots. The highest price during the day was 23,025 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,675 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of March 23, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 255,200 tons, a decrease of 10,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 117,175 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - After the absolute price drops, the enthusiasm for spot purchasing at low prices is high, the spot discount continues to be repaired, and the social inventory has declined for two consecutive statistical days. The imported ore TC is still in a state of slight decline, and the price of rich ore has dropped to negative. After adding by - products, the domestic smelting profit is acceptable, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, with a high rigid demand for ore, which forms a favorable support for zinc prices. Due to the continuous rise in overseas energy prices, there is a possibility of production cuts overseas on the supply side. Although the market sentiment is still unstable, zinc prices have relatively fully priced in the risks. If the Middle East crisis stabilizes later, the upward elasticity of zinc prices is still expected [4]