地缘扰动加剧，供应预期收缩

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the Iran situation and the non - opening of the Strait of Hormuz have led to concerns about energy supply disruptions, pushing up chemical prices [2] - On the supply side, the supply of raw material propane has tightened again, increasing the expectation of PDH device maintenance and reducing the supply of propylene. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices, but some have reduced production due to profit issues. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of propylene remains tight, and price support exists before the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation [2] - The recommended strategy is to cautiously go long on hedging on the single - side, and there is no recommendation for cross - period and cross - variety operations [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 9859 yuan/ton (+1019), the East China spot price of propylene is 9300 yuan/ton (+650), the North China spot price of propylene is 9075 yuan/ton (+495), the East China basis of propylene is - 559 yuan/ton (-369), and the Shandong basis of propylene is - 784 yuan/ton (-524) [1] - Figures related to this part include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, 05 - 06 contract spread, 05 - 07 contract spread, and market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][6][12][13][16] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 71% (+0%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 60 dollars/ton (+85), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is - 168 dollars/ton (-67), and the import profit is - 1225 yuan/ton (-532) [1] - Figures related to this part include the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][19][23][26][27][30] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 27% (-4.13%), production profit is - 125 yuan/ton (+305); epoxy propane operating rate is 76% (-1%), production profit is 31 yuan/ton (-368); n - butanol operating rate is 83% (-2%), production profit is 1262 yuan/ton (+294); octanol operating rate is 88% (-3%), production profit is 758 yuan/ton (+144); acrylic acid operating rate is 72% (-5%), production profit is 4609 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile operating rate is 75% (+1%), production profit is - 16 yuan/ton (+15); phenol - acetone operating rate is 87% (+1%), production profit is 16 yuan/ton (+408) [1] - Figures related to this part include the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5][36][37][42][49][50][53][57] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The on - site inventory of propylene is 46360 tons (+2100), and the figures related to this part include propylene on - site inventory and PP powder on - site inventory [1][5][60]