郑棉小幅反弹，白糖冲高回落

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Investment rating for sugar: Neutral [6] - Investment rating for pulp: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The global cotton supply - demand pattern in the current year is generally loose, but it is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the consumption increment due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity is obvious. The domestic new - crop has a production reduction expectation, and the medium - to - long - term cotton price center is expected to rise [2] - Sugar: The international situation affects the sugar price. The new - season sugar production ratio in Brazil may decrease, but the sufficient industrial supply limits the upside. In China, the sugarcane harvest is delayed, the production increase is higher than expected, and the import volume from January to February has increased significantly [5] - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. The domestic demand for pulp is expected to improve compared with last year, but the port inventory remains high [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,280 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,440 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,592 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton. The US 2025/26 cotton grading inspection data shows that 83.3% of the 0.26 - million - ton graded cotton from March 13 to 19 met the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements, and 81.7% of the 3.0508 - million - ton cumulative graded cotton met the requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: The global supply - demand pattern is loose this year, but tightens in the 26/27 season. The northern hemisphere is entering the key planting period, with uncertainties in area reduction and weather. - Domestic: The 25/26 domestic cotton production increased significantly, and the consumption increment is obvious. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season has good expectations, and the commercial inventory is being depleted quickly. The new - crop in Xinjiang has a production reduction expectation [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. The short - term upside is limited by the internal - external price difference and policy - issued quotas. Focus on the new - year target price policy, planting area reduction, and possible reserve - releasing policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5453 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous day. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5330 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. Pakistan extended the tax - free and low - tax policies for sugar imports until February 28, 2026 [4] Market Analysis - International: The US - Iran conflict continues to escalate, and the new - season sugar production ratio in Brazil may decrease, pushing up the raw sugar futures price. The external market is greatly affected by the international situation, and the sufficient supply limits the upside. - Domestic: The sugarcane harvest is significantly delayed, the production increase is higher than expected, the industrial inventory is high, and the sugar import volume from January to February has increased significantly [5] Strategy - Neutral. The continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens due to oversupply, but it is difficult to fall deeply under the influence of the Middle - East situation. Treat it with a shock - trading mindset in the short term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5188 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.46% from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4825 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price continued to rise [7] Market Analysis - Supply: The overseas new - production capacity has been limited in the past two years, and major overseas softwood pulp mills have announced production - cut and production - conversion plans. The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. - Demand: A large amount of finished - paper production capacity has been put into operation in China in the past two years, but the terminal demand is insufficient. The downstream paper mills' raw - material procurement is cautious. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and the demand for pulp is expected to improve [7] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the port inventory remains high. The short - term pulp price may remain in a low - level consolidation [8]