多晶硅价格持续大跌，成本倒逼供应收缩

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon price is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations with supply gradually releasing after significant contraction since the Spring Festival, weak downstream demand in polysilicon, obvious medium - long - term price support, and an overall situation of weak supply and demand [3] - Polysilicon price is expected to continue weak oscillations due to weak industrial silicon price, unfulfilled demand expectations, high inventory, and other factors [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 23, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,550 yuan/ton and closed at 8,575 yuan/ton, a change of 155 yuan/ton (1.84%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 230,888 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on March 22, 2026 was 21,648 lots, a change of - 20 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot price increased. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 (100) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8,500 - 8,600 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,500 - 8,600 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in some regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1] - As of March 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous week [1] - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 13,800 - 14,300 (0) yuan/ton. After the festival, the demand for downstream polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all decreased to varying degrees, and most were tentative inquiries [1] - The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%, and the supply side gradually recovered after the festival, but the operating rate in the southwest remained low during the dry season [1] Cost - Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang's electricity have increased, providing solid cost support for industrial silicon [2] Strategy - Industrial silicon price is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Short - term range operation for the single - side strategy, and no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 23, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and fell, opening at 38,180 yuan/ton and closing at 35,435 yuan/ton, a change of - 8.12% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 32,015 (33,320 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 12,786 lots [3] - Polysilicon spot price decreased. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 39.00 - 47.50 (- 0.25) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 40.00 - 43.00 (- 2.50) yuan/kg [4] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 34.40 (a month - on - month change of - 3.56%), silicon wafer inventory was 27.65GW (a month - on - month change of - 2.47%), polysilicon weekly output was 19,000.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and silicon wafer output was 11.78GW (a month - on - month change of - 1.67%) [4] - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 0.99 (- 0.02) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.29 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.09 (0.00) yuan/piece [4] - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cell was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cell was about 0.40 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cell was 0.40 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cell was 0.41 (0.00) yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6] - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.74 - 0.76 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.78 (0.00) yuan/W [6] - After the polysilicon price fell below the cost level of 40,000 yuan/ton last week, the market sentiment was pessimistic. The price hit the daily limit, reaching around 35,000 yuan/ton. Most enterprises in the market were in the red, and only a few maintained profitability. Due to cost pressure, the expected production capacity of enterprises will significantly shrink, and the possibility of price rebound after over - decline should be vigilant [6] Strategy - Polysilicon price is expected to continue weak oscillations. Short - term range operation for the single - side strategy with the main contract expected to maintain oscillations in the short term, and no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [7]