宏观扰动增强，碳酸锂价格震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Core View of the Report The recent decline in the futures price of lithium carbonate is due to the slowdown in the destocking rhythm and frequent macro disturbances. The market is driven by sentiment, and the price fluctuates widely. However, the strong demand for energy storage and the trend of tight balance have not changed, and the inventory of lithium carbonate is at a low level. In the short term, it is recommended to mainly operate within a range and go long on dips [3] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 23, 2026, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 141,500 yuan/ton and closed at 149,040 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.02% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 228,178 lots, and the open interest was 269,477 lots, compared with 276,578 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is 1,220 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 33,537 lots, a change of -781 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 142,000 - 151,000 yuan/ton, a change of -2,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 139,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton, a change of -2,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is $2,040/ton, a change of -$35/ton from the previous day [1] - According to SMM statistics, most lithium salt plants have resumed production, and the overall domestic supply is stable. The export policy of Zimbabwe may restrict the subsequent supply increase. The weekly total output of lithium carbonate is 24,186 tons, including 14,914 tons of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene, 3,197 tons from mica, 3,565 tons from salt lakes, and 3,565 tons from recycling [1] Inventory Analysis - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 98,873 tons, a decrease of 86 tons from the previous week. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,608 tons, an increase of 316 tons from the previous week; the downstream inventory is 46,105 tons, an increase of 458 tons from the previous week; other inventories are 36,160 tons, a decrease of 860 tons from the previous week. The downstream and smelter inventories increased, and other inventories decreased. This week still maintains a destocking pattern, but the destocking has slowed down [2] Profit Analysis - The price of lithium concentrate fluctuates with the futures price of lithium carbonate. Lithium salt plants purchase more concentrate on a spot basis, and their production enthusiasm is relatively high. Lithium ore traders maintain a firm price for the ore, and the cost support line fluctuates with the ore price. The profit margins of production enterprises with their own mines and salt lakes are still substantial, and the profits of enterprises purchasing ore externally are maintained. The profit margin of the processing link is squeezed. Although the current processing fee has increased slightly compared to before the Spring Festival, the overall profit is still low [2] Strategy - Short - term operation is mainly recommended. In the short term, it is recommended to operate within a range and go long on dips [3] - There are no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]