现货成交略有回暖，铅价整体仍维持震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is "Neutral" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak overseas and stable domestic, with a game between supply and demand. Overseas lead prices are dragged down by geopolitical factors, while domestic lead prices decline with limited amplitude. The increasing losses of secondary lead and the depletion of primary lead factory inventories provide phased support. There is a co - existence of high - pressure social inventory and downstream bargain - hunting replenishment, and the opening of the import window brings an expectation of increased supply. Terminal demand is structurally differentiated. Looking ahead to next week, lead prices may fall and then rise, and downstream enterprises will maintain bargain - hunting and rigid - demand procurement. Investors should pay attention to the pace of social inventory depletion and the actual arrival of imported lead and operate cautiously [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 23, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.51 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan per ton to 0.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,350 yuan per ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 9,800 yuan per ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan per ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,100 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,360 yuan per ton and closed at 16,395 yuan per ton, up 105 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 63,444 lots, a decrease of 13,162 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 89,207 lots, a decrease of 3,934 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 16,500 yuan per ton and a minimum of 16,320 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,495 yuan per ton and closed at 16,435 yuan per ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 23, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 23, the LME lead inventory was 284,075 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment rating is "Neutral". It is recommended to sell call options. The expected operating range of lead prices within the week is 1,6200 - 16,800 yuan per ton, and enterprises can carry out corresponding buying and selling hedging operations based on this range [3]