油价回落，市场对美联储加息计价或逐步纠正

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report - As oil prices fall, the market's pricing of Fed rate hikes may gradually correct. Given the high US debt, rate hikes are difficult to implement. Enterprises with hedging needs are advised to buy on dips for hedging, with a hedging volume of about one month [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - Futures Market: On March 23, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 94,510 yuan/ton and closed at 92,100 yuan/ton, down 2.79% from the previous trading day. The night - session contract opened at 95,010 yuan/ton and closed at 94,840 yuan/ton, up 2.98% from the afternoon close [1]. - Spot Market: The Shanghai copper futures contract 2604 opened lower, fluctuated between 92,600 - 93,100 yuan/ton, and closed at 92,620 yuan/ton. The monthly spread fluctuated, and the import profit was between 240 - 320 yuan/ton. The sales and purchase sentiment of Shanghai electrolytic copper declined. The social inventory decreased by 41,600 tons [2]. Important Information Summary - US - Iran Relations: US President Trump said the US and Iran had "strong" talks and reached a preliminary agreement to suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. However, Iran denied having talks with the US [3]. - Fed's Stance: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said inflation is the main risk, not ruling out rate hikes, but if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly, rate cuts may occur later this year [3]. Mining, Smelting, Import, and Consumption - Mining: Power Metal Resources invested $1 million in Next Minerals, getting a 2.6% stake. Swift Mining Services also invested, and together they got 7.9% of the shares. The funds will be used for the Comahue project [4]. - Smelting and Import: In February 2026, China's scrap copper imports were 167,937.84 tons, down 27.72% month - on - month and 13.13% year - on - year [4]. - Consumption: The terminal demand shows "not - weak in peak season but increasing wait - and - see sentiment". The copper cable enterprise's operating rate is 70.52%, up 3.93 percentage points. The enameled wire industry is strong, with the operating rate at 88.93%, up 3.8 percentage points [4]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 5,125 tons to 347,475 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 13,737 tons to 274,115 tons. On March 23, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 467,700 tons, down 55,400 tons from the previous week [6]. Copper Price and Basis Data - Spot (Premium and Discount): The premium and discount of SMM 1 copper, premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper, Yangshan premium, and LME (0 - 3) are provided for different time points [27]. - Inventory: LME, SHFE, and COMEX inventories, as well as SHFE warehouse receipts and LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratios are presented for different time points [28]. - Arbitrage: Ratios such as CU06 - CU04, CU05 - CU04, CU05/AL05, CU05/ZN05, import profit, and the Shanghai - London ratio are given for different time points [28][29].