中东供应端矛盾未缓解，市场波动极高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The contradiction on the supply side in the Middle East has not been alleviated, and the market volatility is extremely high [1]. - The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are tightening, and the market structure is operating strongly due to the blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the accumulated damage to Middle East energy facilities [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has a high supply share from the Middle East and a large risk exposure to geopolitical conflicts. As of now, the maintenance volume of Middle East refineries exceeds 2.5 million barrels per day, and local refined oil supply may not recover quickly even if the strait resumes navigation in the short term [2]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the direct export share from the Middle East is not high, the production has declined passively due to the reduced load of refineries in the Asia - Pacific region caused by raw material shortages. The high premium on the diesel side boosts the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and its market structure has strengthened significantly. The crack spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has more room to reach the historical high compared to high - sulfur fuel oil [2]. - Trump's remarks on postponing the attack on Iran were regarded as a signal of easing, causing the night trading of FU and LU to plunge following the crude oil market. The situation in Iran remains unclear, and the market is highly volatile, so both long and short positions lack a safety margin and caution is needed [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 5.99% during the day session, at 5,060 yuan per ton; the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.51% during the day session, at 5,980 yuan per ton [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: In the short term, it is oscillating strongly with high market volatility. It is recommended to mainly wait and see [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: In the short term, it is oscillating strongly with high market volatility. It is recommended to mainly wait and see [3]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [3]. - Cross - period: No strategy provided [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy provided [3]. - Options: No strategy provided [3].