盘面连续大涨，LPG基差走低

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The geopolitical situation remains tense, with the number of oil tankers (including LPG ships) passing through the Strait of Hormuz at an extremely low level, significantly tightening the supply of LPG in the Middle East. The war has also affected the oil and gas fields, leading to a reduction in production and a longer - lasting impact. Although the increase in US LPG exports can partially fill the Middle East gap, it is limited by export terminal capacity and actual shipments are lower than expected, further tightening the Asian LPG market and driving up the arrival price. The PG futures, which lagged in the early stage, have accelerated their rise. Considering the supply gap and the cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of March, PG is expected to continue its strong performance. However, the situation in the Middle East is still unclear, the sector is greatly affected by news, and there is a negative feedback effect on downstream demand after the sharp rise in LPG prices, with the basis significantly decreasing. The market is highly volatile, and both long and short positions lack a safety margin, so caution is needed [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - On March 23, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 5520 - 6010 yuan/ton; North China market, 6150 - 6550 yuan/ton; East China market, 6580 - 7090 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 6650 - 6860 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton; South China market, 6950 - 7130 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of April 2026, the arrival price of frozen LPG in East China was 1158 US dollars/ton for both propane and butane, down 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous period. The RMB - converted price was 8802 yuan/ton for both propane and butane, up 11 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of April 2026, the arrival price of frozen LPG in South China was 1158 US dollars/ton for both propane and butane, down 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous period. The RMB - converted price was 8802 yuan/ton for both propane and butane, up 11 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. It is recommended to wait and see [2] - Inter - period: No strategy provided - Inter - variety: No strategy provided - Spot - futures: No strategy provided - Options: No strategy provided