多重因素驱动，油脂震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors are driving the oil and fat market to fluctuate and strengthen. The prices of the three major oils and fats rose yesterday. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has hindered shipping, pushing up the energy risk premium and enhancing the economic viability of palm oil as a biodiesel raw material, driving the vegetable oil sector to rise. The expectation of the US RVO policy is rising, and the EPA is expected to significantly increase the biofuel obligation volume for 2026 at the end of March. Coupled with the 45Z tax credit, it will strengthen the industrial demand for US soybean oil and form a bottom support for global oil and fat prices [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,942.00 yuan/ton, a change of +224 yuan and a change rate of +2.31% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,740.00 yuan/ton, a change of +112.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.30%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,950.00 yuan/ton, a change of +74.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.75% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,890.00 yuan/ton, a change of +170.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.75%, with a spot basis of P05 - 52.00 and a change of -54.00 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,910.00 yuan/ton, a change of +90.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +1.02%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 170.00 and a change of -22.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,480.00 yuan/ton, a change of +70.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.67%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 530.00 and a change of -4.00 yuan [1] Market News Summary - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that private exporters reported the export sales of 161,120 tons of soybeans and 102,000 tons of corn to Mexico, both for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 68%, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous week. The sowing rate of the second - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region in 2026 was 97% [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 599 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 608 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was 511 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) was 505 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was 480 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 230 cents/bushel, an increase of 6 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (April shipment) was 214 cents/bushel, an increase of 6 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (April shipment) was 146 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - Since March, the operating rate of domestic oil mills has continued to rise, and the weekly soybean crushing volume is close to 2 million tons. As of March 20, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was about 5.5 million tons. The estimated monthly crushing volume is about 7.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 1.3 million tons, and an increase of about 0.8 million tons compared to the average of the same period in the past three years [2] - Affected by the price trends of US soybeans and international crude oil, the export quotes of Brazilian soybeans and the domestic prices of soybean meal and soybean oil fluctuated downward last week. The decline in the CNF export quotes of Brazilian soybeans was greater, and the domestic crushing profit margin increased slightly. On March 20, the crushing profit margin of imported Brazilian soybeans for April and May shipments was 60 - 91 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 - 16 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week [2]